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Tag: Traders

  • What Is the DXY Dollar Index?

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    The DXY is an indicator that many market watchers and commentators reference and quote. So what is the DXY or US Dollar index?

    The DXY is a geometrically weighted index of some of the major trading partners of the United States. The composition if the DXY Index is heavily weighted towards the Euro and European countries that have not joined the European common market. The components of the DXY Index are (by weighting): Euro (57.6%), Japanese Yen (13.6%), Great Britain- Pounds Sterling (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%), and Swiss Franc (3.6%). Because of the composition of the DXY, it is sometimes referred to as the Anti-Euro Index.

    The DXY is a convenient index to use as a simple method for referencing strength and weakness of the US Dollar (USD). But its ubiquity disguises the fact that it does not reflect the value of the dollar against a broad enough basket of currencies. The DXY was created by JP Morgan in 1973, and it has only been updated once, for the introduction of the Euro currency.

    The DXY is heavily weighted towards European currencies, it underweight’s the Canadian Dollar, as a proportion of US trade, and it largely ignores important Asian and Pacific trading partners, including Korea, Australia, Taiwan and necessarily China. Even if one were interested in including the Chinese Renminbi (Yuan) it would be both difficult and of questionable informational value to include the Renminbi because China keeps their currency pegged to a range that is based on the dollar.

    A more accurate basket of currencies to track the relative value of the USD would be to value the dollar against the top US trading partners. The top 6 US trading partners, from high to low are: Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, Germany and the UK. It’s hard to say why JP Morgan created this index and how it came into such prominence. One odd thing about this index is you cannot trade it. There is no market that you can go to and buy the DXY. The closest you can get are futures and options contracts traded on the InterContinental Exchange (ICE).

    If it’s so inaccurate, then why is it so widely quoted? While there are more accurate ways to benchmark the USD, absolute precision is not always important for an indicator. Many traders and institutions likely have their own indices that they use to track the USD, but for the sake of comparison, it is very convenient to have a common index. The DXY is also highly correlated to a trade-weighted index most of the time. Relative strength or weakness moves by the USD represents huge flows of money. As I’ve written previously, the recent +10% move by the DXY represents more than $1 trillion of nominal wealth destruction. Moves of this magnitude do not happen in a vacuum and the relative weakness of the DXY is mirrored by corresponding weakness in the trade-weighted index.

    While there are shortcomings, the DXY does serve as a reliable indicator of USD strength and weakness and can be used as such, as long as one keeps in mind that it will occasionally be skewed if there are large currency moves that occur in the Euro.

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    Source by Christian Koch

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  • CFD Trading Benefits

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    Contracts for Difference (CFD) are attractive trading instruments to many traders. This financial derivative has numerous benefits that draw the attention of amateur and expert traders. CFD trading is very flexible and an efficient alternative to traditional investing.

    Here is a list of reasons why CFD Trading is popular among traders:

    No stamp duty

    A stamp duty is a tax imposed on numerous acquisitions, including selling real estate, cars, and assets belonging to a business. Remember, CFDs give traders the opportunity to speculate on markets without physically owning the underlying asset. Since you do not own the underlying asset, you won’t have to pay stamp duty.

    Trade in both rising and falling markets

    Another solid advantage of CFD trading is that traders are not restricted to open in only one position. CFDs are very flexible financial instruments because it can make you trade in both falling and rising markets, allowing you to produce more effective strategies for more profit.

    Margin Trading

    One of the most notable aspects of CFD is that you can trade using margin. This means you don’t need to purchase the full value of an asset to open a position, you only need to deposit a fraction of the actual trade size of each transaction. For example, you have a CFD share for $100, if your broker has a margin requirement of 5% then you only have to pay $5 to open the position.

    Trading using a margin means you can multiply your profit although it is important to recognize that losses can also be multiplied in margin trading. Thus you can lose more than your initial deposits.

    Hedge Positions

    CFDs are one of the best hedging tools for traders. If you are anticipating a loss in your current position then you can limit your potential risk by using a CFD to hedge your position. For example, if you have a short position in an asset that is accumulating losses, you can open a long position to balance your losses. The long position will start to gain profits once the prices move in the upward direction.

    The foreign exchange market has numerous features that attract investors and traders alike. One notable feature of this immense market is that it is a decentralized marketplace – trading transactions don’t happen on one centralized exchange. In the Forex market, fx trading is conducted electronically or over-the-counter which means transactions happen electronically.

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    Source by Stephanie Torres

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  • E-Mini Trading: The Ambush Trade

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    When e-mini trading, the Ambush trade can be a power tool in your arsenal of trading. It’s a Fibonacci trade, which certainly is not my favorite, but has a surprising level of success. This trade set-up, which occurs frequently, take some time and practice to recognize, but learning it can put valuable ticks on the positive side of your trading ledger.

    A quick note on trades utilizing Fibonacci number is in order here. I have no belief that Fib numbers hold any particular value in e-mini trading, but enough people believe in Fibonacci magic to make this trade a virtual self-fulfilling prophecy. I trade what works, regardless of my personal beliefs. Since enough e-mini traders have a high level of belief in Fibonacci trading, I will happily join in their fun.

    There are several ways to trade the Ambush trade, with some individuals believing that the entire range of the day is in order. These traders plot the usual Fibonacci numbers in the usual manner, only using the entire day’s range as their basis. Personally, I have found this trading methodology to be less successful than mine; I generally look to find a substantial move in the day’s trading and apply Fib retracements to that individual move. I have listened to numerous discussions on this topic some pro some negative; but for me, spotting a significant move and trading the Ambush on that move has been most successful.

    So what is the Ambush trade?

    As I mentioned previously, I generally notice a significant move in the day’s trading action and apply a set of Fibonacci retracement from the beginning of the move to the conclusion of the move. Essentially I am measuring the level of retracement of the initial move. The area I am interested is the 50% retracement to the 61.2 level of retracement. The area between these two plots is called the Ambush zone. I might add that the number 50 is not a Fib number but it gets thrown into the mix for reasons I don’t fully understand.

    Some aggressive traders automatically take a trade at a predetermined level in the ambush zone; say, at 50%. I personally don’t use this method, as I generally wait for the market to begin to change directions before entering this trade. It’s an odd trade for those who are not accustomed to observing this trade, as it seems you are taking a trade “out of the blue” in a relatively strong retracement against the trend. But Fib traders are well aware of the Ambush trade and are generally waiting patiently for the retracement to hit the Ambush zone. Then they take action, and trade in the direction opposite the retracement and in the direction of the original trend. I can generally get 12+ ticks out of this trade; but do not let it run, as the price action often resumes in the direction of the retracement. This is not a trade to get greedy on, get your ticks and get out at the first sign of movement opposite the direction of your trade.

    In summary, I have described a very popular trade among experienced traders based upon Fibonacci retracements. This trade is relatively consistent so I look for it throughout the course of the day. Don’t try to eek every tick out of this trade, and exit at the first sign of the trade moving against your position.

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    Source by David S. Adams

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  • How to Win Consistently at Trading Forex

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    Trading Forex is a fantastic career or hobby, but unless you are winning consistently then it can be a short lived career or an expensive hobby. The elation of a win is often followed by several losses if you don’t have a serious approach to your money management strategy and control of your emotions. In this article we are going to establish a money management and psychological strategy that will help you win consistently at trading Forex.

    First of all let us look at the trade settings themselves. Now this article is not to define a winning strategy; but to show you that even a strategy that only wins 50% of the time can make consistent returns. You may already have a winning strategy but poor money and psychological management.

    It is important to aim for a 3:1 risk reward ratio. In simple terms; you need to look for trades that can offer you 3 times the return of the potential loss. If you adopt this approach then you only need to win 50% of the time because your wins out way the losses by 3 times. Once you master this rule you are well on your way to a winning strategy.

    Research your trades well and do not jump into the markets without doing your analysis whether that is fundamental or technical. If you can stick to these rules then you are half way to winning the psychological battle as well.

    The biggest issue traders face is getting into trades too early because they think they are going to miss the trade or too late because they were scared to pull the trigger. Leaving a trade too early because they believe it is about to turn against them, only to later watch it hit their, would be, take profit level. Or, equally as common, they let the trade run and run expecting more and more profit only to let all the profit get sucked away in a reversal. There is an old saying amongst successful traders “plan your trade and trade your plan. That is exactly what you should do.

    Don not let your emotions let you take profit early if that was not your original plan. Make sure you plan for the trade turning before your profit level and have a preset plan to take profit. A solid plan is to take profit if the trade has reached 90% of the target and is showing signs of reversal. If you have your stop loss set correctly from your original analysis do not extend it as you are compromising your 3:1 risk reward ratio. Keeping these rules in min is the first step to winning consistently at Forex trading.

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    Source by Adam Woods

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  • The Best FOREX Price Action Trading Indicator – Shift Theory Ratio Price Action Analysis

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    There is a new category of technical analysis available for trading the FOREX markets. It is called Shift Theory and this new technique is based on Shift Ratios that break down the three main types of chart conditions:

    • Choppy Markets
    • Up Trending Markets
    • Down Trending Markets

    What Shift Theory Ratios do is focus on the important data and ignores the data that is responsible for false signals and noise. The Shift Theory trading approach works better than any other form of technical analysis because it focuses on the science of price analysis. Most technical analysis today focuses on the closing price as the main piece of data that is analyzed. The main issue with that is the closing price is a moving target. A lot traders don’t realize that indicators are nothing more than measuring tools and they need to be treated that way. When it comes to measuring price you need stable data to get an accurate reading. I like to use an example of trying the weigh yourself on a scale. If you keep jumping around while you try to weigh yourself then it is almost imposable to get an accurate reading. That is exactly what the closing price does. It changes every time there is an uptick or down tick and that changes the reading of most indicators and that results in a lot of noise and false trading signals.

    The Shift Trading Ratios rely on the undeniable facts of market trends. Some examples are:

    • Prices on a chart can only go higher if they make a new high.
    • Prices on a chart can only go lower if they make a new low.
    • Choppy markets have bars that have a high percentage of overlap.

    As a trader the Shift Theory Ratios are excellent tool to keep traders disciplined and sticking to sound trading principles. As a example we will cover the reading and indications Shift Ratios give in 3 types of market conditions:

    • Choppy
    • Up Trending
    • Down trending

    When market conditions are choppy the Inside Shift Ratio is the plot that measures that type of market condition. What the Inside Shift Ratio does is measure the current bar percentage that is overlapping the previous bar. All choppy markets have a high percentage of bars that overlap each other. It is easy to see on a chart but most indicators simply cannot measure these types of condition because they are based on the closing price.

    If the market is up trending then the Upper Shift Ratio is the indicator that measures that type of price change. In up trending markets the bars on a chart should be making higher highs and that is a undeniable fact about upward moving markets.

    During down markets the Lower Shift Ratio is the indicator that measures the strength of the down trend. This again is based on the undeniable fact that downward markets must make lower lows in order to go lower.

    In the end these techniques work and the proof is in the back testing. A dirty secret many indicators have is they really don’t work and that is why nobody is willing to show any back testing results. So if you want to find the best FOREX trading indicator then you need to take a look at the Shift Theory Ratios. If you want consistent and proven results then as a traders you must focus on the important data and ignore the data that is responsible for signal noise and lag.

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    Source by David Zielinski

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  • The 7-Point Trading Plan Template

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    One of the first things beginning traders are told to do is to create a trading plan that will spell out a trading strategy and a list of rules to follow in implementing that strategy. The only problem with that advice is that beginning traders don’t really have any trading experience, and thus are lost when attempting to craft a trading plan for their trading.

    Another problem with trading plans is that beginners are instructed to treat their plans as gospel and are told not to deviate from them. This prevents traders from adapting their strategies and rules to improve their performance, an essential step in every trader’s learning curve.

    Instead of a rigid document to be created early on in your trading career and never to be changed, you should instead view your trading plan as a living and breathing set of guidelines, capable of being modified as you gain trading experience. This article will teach you how to create a trading plan that will guide your trading efforts without stunting your progress.

    The 7-Point Trading Plan Template

    In creating your trading plan, here are the items you should include:

    1. Markets – What markets will you focus on? Be as specific as possible – if you’re trading stocks, what types of stocks will you concentrate on?

    2. Timeframe – How long will you hold your positions for? Will you be a day trader focusing on trades lasting a few minutes, or a swing trader holding trades for a few days?

    3. Time Period – What times of the day will you trade? You may have outside responsibilities that prevent you from trading an entire trading day. Pick which times of the day best suit your style.

    4. Trading Style – How would you characterize your trading style? Perhaps you are a momentum trader focusing on trending stocks? Or maybe you specialize in a particular sector? Again, this can and will change as you gain experience and learn from your results.

    5. Risk Management Rules – This is an absolutely essential and often overlooked component of your trading plan. How will you manage your risk, both on a per-trade basis and overall? You should have a “stop trading” point which is a fixed dollar amount that will force you to stop trading if you’re down by that much.

    6. Mentor – Who do you follow and learn from as a teacher? Attempting to learn trading all by yourself is not only lonely, but foolish as it ignores the hard-earned wisdom of other traders. You can either repeat the mistakes of other professionals and hope to eventually learn the lessons and techniques that they’ve learned, or you can simply learn from successful traders and bypass those initial frustrations.

    7. Learning Process – How will you structure your learning process as a trader? What steps will you take to ensure you’re always getting better? How will you structure your trading journal?

    Trading Plan Example

    To show you this trading plan template in action, I’m going to fill it out according to my own trading style:

    1. I trade the U.S. stock markets, focusing on volatile stocks with sufficient volume. These stocks are typically the focus of news items and are thus “in play.”

    2. I am a day trader and hold my positions anywhere from a few seconds to a few hours. I’m primarily a scalper and am looking to take advantage of short-term imbalances between supply and demand. I will stay in a trade as long as I can identify a supply/demand imbalance.

    3. I trade throughout the trading day, although I focus most of my activity at the open and close of the trading day.

    4. While I have multiple styles, I would characterize myself primarily as a momentum trader that relies on tape reading to identify favorable risk/reward situations to enter in the direction of a trend.

    5. I’m fanatical about managing my risk, both on a per-trade basis and overall. Every trade I enter has a predefined stop-loss and I have a daily stop-loss to stop trading when I’m having a rough day.

    6. I’ve had a variety of mentors throughout my career, and now I talk with a select group of traders at my firm with similar trading styles.

    7. I review every single trade I make, always looking for ways in which I can improve. This may be as simple as cutting down my risk when trading certain stocks or altering my execution patterns.

    Your trading plan can be as simple as that, just a series of statements answering those 7 questions. You also shouldn’t spend too much time creating your trading plan as it will frequently change throughout your career.

    Summary

    Your trading plan will crystallize exactly what you’re trying to accomplish, but don’t view it as set in stone. Rather, your plan will grow and change as you gain experience and develop your own trading style.

    Your trading plan also doesn’t need to be a complicated document spanning multiple pages. You simply need to define what markets you’re going to trade, how you’re going to trade them (how long you’ll hold positions, what times of day you’re going to trade, and your trading style), how you’re going to manage your risk, and how you’re going to continue developing as a trader. By clarifying and explicitly stating those 7 key points, your trading plan will serve and support you in your trading career.

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    Source by Matt A Nadell

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