Tag: Numbers

  • Nigerians Suggest Lockdown Extension As Lagos Records All-time Daily High Of 183 COVID-19 Cases

    Nigerians Suggest Lockdown Extension As Lagos Records All-time Daily High Of 183 COVID-19 Cases

    Nigerians Suggest Lockdown Extension As Lagos Records All-time Daily High Of 183 COVID-19 Cases 1

    Some Nigerians are piling pressure on the federal and Lagos State government to place a fresh lockdown on Lagos to reduce the spread of Coronavirus.

    On Thursday, Lagos recorded an all-time high of 183 cases of COVID-19 in a single day. 

    A dusk-to-dawn curfew was announced by President Muhammadu Buhari last week after the outrage that greeted the lockdown. 

    Nigerians Suggest Lockdown Extension As Lagos Records All-time Daily High Of 183 COVID-19 Cases 2


    Since the  lockdown was lifted on Sunday, the state has recorded 423 cases. 

    While calling for the extension of the lockdown, some Nigerians are however, urging the government to provide palliatives to cushion the effects of the lockdown.Using the hashtag, #extendlockdown, many Nigerians took to Twitter to ask the government to do something before it gets out of hand.

    @Irunnia_ said, “When I saw 183 cases in Lagos, I thought my eyes made a mistake. Please, the government should #extendlockdown before we turn to Italy.” 

    See Also

    Nigerians Suggest Lockdown Extension As Lagos Records All-time Daily High Of 183 COVID-19 Cases 3

    Breaking News

    BREAKING: Lagos Projects 120,000 COVID-19 Cases By July, August


    @Danny_Walterr tweeted, “The idea of #extendlockdown is brilliant if this government provides palliatives for people just as in other countries but asking people who feed daily from sales to stay at home with nothing and eat what? sand?”

    @ezraallen14 said, “183 cases in Lagos. At this rate, if the government doesn’t call for a second total lockdown of the nation, I’m afraid the number will increase drastically within days. How can the government see this happening and still decide to keep quiet?”

    @debbietolz said, “183 cases in Lagos and the lockdown has only been lifted for four days. We don’t need a prophet to tell us what would happen if Lagos isn’t locked down. Everyone, please stay at home.”

    @bimboro1 tweeted, “183 cases in Lagos! Very impressive! Is this government clueless? Another way to kill Lagosians. Numbers are now getting to this point and no one can think clearly that you should #lockdownLagos now.” 

    @toyinobaterulp said, “Once upon a time, the total number of cases was less than 300, now we are recording 381 cases in a day. God help us! #lockdownlagos.”
     

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    Nigerians Suggest Lockdown Extension As Lagos Records All-time Daily High Of 183 COVID-19 Cases
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  • The United States of Mobile Advertising

    The US is all about numbers, big, big numbers. It has a mobile population exceeding 300 million, and a mobile internet user base on the verge of surpassing 100 million.
    With this level of scale, mobile advertising budgets are high – especially in relation to Europe – with the average mobile advertising campaign in the US between $75,000-100,000.

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  • WHO calls for healthy, safe and decent working conditions for all health workers, amidst COVID-19 pandemic

    WHO calls for healthy, safe and decent working conditions for all health workers, amidst COVID-19 pandemic

    On World Day for Safety and Health at Work, the World Health Organization calls upon all governments, employers and workers organizations and the global community to take urgent measures for strengthen countries’ capacities to protect occupational health and safety of health workers and emergency responders respect their rights to decent working conditions, and develop national programmes for occupational health of health workers and to provide them with occupational health services. Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, ILO has dedicated World Day for Safety and Health at Work 2020 in addressing the outbreak of infectious diseases at work, in particular, on the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Health workers are at the front line of the COVID-19 outbreak response and as such are exposed to hazards that put them at risk of infection. Hazards include pathogen exposure, long working hours, psychological distress, fatigue, occupational burnout, stigma, and physical and psychological violence.

    Infections with COVID-19, insufficient measures for infection prevention and control, occupational safety and health, mental health and psychosocial support for health workers result in high rates of absenteeism and deplete the health workforce – the most precision resources for stopping the COVID outbreak. 

    Key Messages and Facts

    COVID-19 infections among health workers:

    • As of 21 April 2020 countries reported to WHO that over 35, 000 health workers were infected with COVID19. This number is significantly higher because of underreporting.
    • The major occupational risks for COVID19 infection among health workers are: late recognition or suspicion of COVID-19 in patients, working in a higher-risk department, longer duty hours, sub-optimal adherence to infection prevention and control measures, such as hand hygiene practices, and lack of or improper use of personal protective equipment (PPE). Other factors have also been documented, such as inadequate or insufficient IPC training for respiratory pathogens, including the COVID-19 virus, as well as long exposure in areas in healthcare facilities where large numbers of COVID-19 patients were being cared for.
    • The prevention of infections requires the use of appropriate infection prevention and control measures by all health workers, with a special focus on the adherence to hand hygiene and personal protective equipment when caring for COVID-19 patients, as well as a combination of environmental and administrative controls
    • Health workers infected with COVID-19 following exposure in the workplace should have the right to employment injury benefits for occupational disease, including compensation, rehabilitation, and curative services.

    Violence and stigma against health workers:

    • Health workers are at high risk of violence all over the world. Between 8% and 38% of health workers suffer physical violence at some point in their careers. Many more are threatened or exposed to verbal aggression and social stigma because of their work.
    • In the COVID19 crisis, shortage of staff and resources and increasing social tensions result in increased level of violence against health workers and even attacks against health care facilities. Doctors, nurses, security personnel and those who are assisting in testing, tracing contacts and enforcing physical distancing measures to stop COVID-19 experience threats and aggression.
    • WHO calls upon governments, employers and workers organizations to institute measures for zero-tolerance to violence against health workers at the workplace and at the way to and from their workplace, and for intensifying social support and respect for health workers and their families.

    Long working hours and psychosocial hazards for health workers:

    • Many health workers have to work longer or irregular hours because of the increasing demand for health services. In addition, many countries experience shortage of health workers, or junior staff are working in demanding new roles.
    • Health workers face psychosocial hazards, which are exacerbated during emergencies where demands increase and they have to experience risk of infection witness higher suffering or mortality.
    • Long working hours, shift work, high workload and other psychosocial hazards can lead to fatigue, occupational burnout, increased psychological distress or declining mental health – affecting the health of health workers, and the quality and safety of care delivered.
    • WHO calls for adequate staffing levels and clinical rotation in healthcare facilities, measures to minimize psychosocial hazards, and provision of access to mental health and psychosocial support for health workers.

    The annual World Day for Safety and Health at Work on 28 April promotes the prevention of occupational accidents and diseases globally. It is an awareness-raising campaign intended to focus international attention on the magnitude of the problem and on how promoting and creating a safety and health culture can help reduce the number of work-related deaths and injuries.

     

    WHO calls for healthy, safe and decent working conditions for all health workers, amidst COVID-19 pandemic
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  • Maternal infections in health facilities

    Maternal infections in health facilities

    A clearer picture of the global impact 

    New research from the Global Maternal Sepsis Study (GLOSS), a major WHO/HRP initiative, shows that infection has a much larger impact on global maternal mortality and morbidity than previously thought.

    Logo of the Lancet Global HealthThe
    results from GLOSS, published in The Lancet Global Health, are the first to provide data on frequency of maternal infections and
    sepsis across the pregnancy and post-pregnancy period, in a large number of health facilities around the world. 

    Around 11 women per 1000 live births had an infection which resulted in or contributed to what is known as a severe maternal outcome – either they died or nearly died – during their hospitalization. 

    Urgent improvement is needed to manage this life-threatening risk faced by all pregnant and recently pregnant women, wherever they are in the world. 

    What is maternal sepsis and how does it lead to maternal death?

    Maternal sepsis is a life-threatening condition that arises when the body’s response to infection causes injury to its own tissues and organs during pregnancy, child-birth, post-abortion or the postpartum period.

    The latest global estimates place sepsis due to obstetric infections as the third most common cause of maternal mortality. However, this only includes infections as a direct result of pregnancy, such as endometritis or post-caesarean wound infections.

    Few
    previous studies include post-abortion infections. Neither do they address indirect infections such as respiratory and meningitis, which are aggravated by pregnancy but not directly caused by it.

    A better understanding of maternal infection

    GLOSS was a massive facility-based data collection effort led by WHO, accompanied by a ‘STOP SEPSIS!’ campaign to increase awareness among healthcare providers.

    The study gathered data on women who were admitted with suspected or confirmed infection during pregnancy or post-pregnancy over a one-week period in 2017. More than 2800 women participated in the study in 52 countries.

    GLOSS included healthcare facilities that care for women during pregnancy, childbirth or at the end of pregnancy, as well as facilities without maternity service but where women could be hospitalized during or after pregnancy, and data on infections
    which are not usually recorded as maternal sepsis, including post-abortion and indirect infections. 

    The result is a more complete understanding of the frequency and impact of maternal infections in health facilities. 

    GLOSS calls attention not only to the wider range of risks faced by pregnant women but also to the long period of time during which they are at risk. 

    Putting global numbers on maternal infection and sepsis

    Overall, around 70 pregnant or recently-pregnant women per 1000 live births were found to have a maternal infection needing hospital management. 

    Across the study, 11 women with either direct or indirect infection per 1000 live births developed a severe maternal outcome, but in low- and middle-income countries up to 15 women per 1000 births were affected.

    Infections were the underlying cause of most of the deaths recorded during the study, primarily post-abortion infection and indirect infections. Infections were also present in about a third of deaths attributed to other causes, such as postpartum
    haemorrhage.

    This suggests that the contribution of infection to global maternal mortality and morbidity may be larger than current reports of maternal sepsis mortality suggest.

    Preventing, identifying and treating maternal infection and sepsis

    Some of the most common maternal infections found in the study, such as urinary tract infections, post-caesarean and post-abortion infections, are largely preventable and treatable.

    GLOSS results suggest that current levels of monitoring and clinical care across health facilities are not enough to prevent, identify and treat levels of maternal infection effectively. 

    For instance, a complete set of vital signs was not reported for a third of the women in the study, on the day their infection was suspected or diagnosed. Delays in antimicrobial therapy were frequent.

    GLOSS also shows marked differences across countries, with the highest burden in low- and middle-income countries, compared with high-income countries.

    This may reflect the impact of broader health determinants in different country contexts. Challenges of overcrowding, limited access to water and sanitation and constraints to safe births by skilled birth attendants can reduce the ability of healthcare
    providers to manage the frequency and outcome of maternal infections.

    An opportunity to implement evidence-based practice

    GLOSS gives healthcare providers, policy-makers, and the public at large an opportunity: to mobilise around these data improve evidence-based practice, and save lives. 

    WHO has produced a number of resources which can support timely action to prevent, diagnose and treat maternal infection, as well as activities such as the upcoming SAVE LIVES: Clean Your Hands campaign
    on 5 May which celebrates the central role played by nurses and midwives in clean health care. 

    In addition, WHO will publish a global sepsis epidemiology report around the 73rd World Health Assembly (WHA) in May, as requested in the
    2017
    WHA Resolution on Improving the prevention, diagnosis and clinical managementof sepsis.

    Understanding why and how infection affects women is essential for equipping healthcare providers with life-saving knowledge and enabling health care systems to bring down global maternal mortality and morbidity.

    Related publications

    WHO recommendations for prevention and treatment of maternal peripartum infections

    WHO Clinical practice handbook for safe abortion

    Global guidelines on the prevention of surgical site infection

    WHO statement on maternal sepsis

    World Health Assembly resolution on Improving the prevention, diagnosis and clinical management of sepsis

    Health Topics

    Antimicrobial resistance

    Infection Prevention and Control

    Water Sanitation Hygiene

    Other links

    Global Maternal Sepsis Study

    SAVE LIVES: Clean Your Hands 5 May 2020

     

     

    Maternal infections in health facilities
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  • YOUTH INTELLECTUAL EDUCATION AND SCHOOL WORK

    YOUTH INTELLECTUAL EDUCATION AND SCHOOL WORK

    INTELLECTUAL EDUCATION AND SCHOOL WORK

    The general change and plasticity at puberty—English teaching—Causes of its failure: (1) too much time to other languages, (2) subordination of literary content to form, (3) too early stress on eye and hand instead of ear and mouth, (4) excessive use of concrete words—Children’s interest in words—Their favorites—Slang—Story telling—Age of reading crazes—What to read—The historic sense—Growth of memory span.

    Just as about the only duty of young children is implicit obedience, so the chief mental training from about eight to twelve is arbitrary memorization, drill, habituation, with only limited appeal to the understanding. After the critical transition age of six or seven, when the brain has achieved its adult size and weight, and teething has reduced the chewing surface to its least extent, begins a unique stage of life marked by reduced growth and increased activity and power to resist both disease and fatigue, which suggests what was, in some just post-simian age of our race, its period of maturity. Here belong discipline in writing, reading, spelling, verbal memory, manual training, practise of instrumental technic, proper names, drawing, drill in arithmetic, foreign languages by oral methods, the correct pronunciation of which is far harder if acquired later, etc. The hand is never so near the brain. Most of the content of the mind has entered it through the senses, and the eye-and ear-gates should be open at their widest. Authority should now take precedence of reason. Children comprehend much and very rapidly if we can only refrain from explaining, but this slows down intuition, tends to make casuists and prigs and to enfeeble the ultimate vigor of reason. It is the age of little method and much matter. The good teacher is now a pedotrieb, or boy-driver. Boys of this age at now not very affectionate. They take pleasure in obliging and imitating those they like and perhaps in disobliging those they dislike. They have much selfishness and little sentiment. As this period draws to a close and the teens begin, the average normal child will not be bookish but should read and write well, know a few dozen well-chosen books, play several dozen games, be well started in one or more ancient and modern languages—if these must be studied at all, should know something of several industries and how to make many things he is interested in, belong to a few teams and societies, know much about nature in his environment, be able to sing and draw, should have memorized much more than he now does, and be acquainted, at least in story form, with the outlines of many of the best works in literature and the epochs and persons in history.[1] Morally he should have been through many if not most forms of what parents and teachers commonly call “badness,” and Professor Yoder even calls “meanness”. He should have fought, whipped and been whipped, used language offensive to the prude and to the prim precisian, been in some scrapes, had something to do with bad, if more with good, associates, and been exposed to and already recovering from as many forms of ethical mumps and measles as, by having in mild form now he can be rendered immune to later when they become far more dangerous, because his moral and religious as well as his rational nature is normally rudimentary. He is not depraved, but only in a savage or half-animal stage, although to a large-brained, large-hearted and truly parental soul that does not call what causes it inconvenience by opprobrious names, an altogether lovable and even fascinating stage. The more we know of boyhood the more narrow and often selfish do adult ideals of it appear. Something is amiss with the lad of ten who is very good, studious, industrious, thoughtful, altruistic, quiet, polite, respectful, obedient, gentlemanly, orderly, always in good toilet, docile to reason, who turns away from stories that reek with gore, prefers adult companionship to that of his mates, refuses all low associates, speaks standard English, or is as pious and deeply in love with religious services as the typical maiden teacher or the à la modeparent wishes. Such a boy is either under-vitalized and anemic and precocious by nature, a repressed, overtrained, conventionalized manikin, a hypocrite, as some can become under pressure thus early in life, or else a genius of some kind with a little of all these.

    But with the teens all this begins to be changed and many of these precepts must be gradually reversed. There is an outburst of growth that needs a large part of the total kinetic energy of the body. There is a new interest in adults, a passion to be treated like one’s elders, to make plans for the future, a new sensitiveness to adult praise or blame. The large muscles have their innings and there is a new clumsiness of body and mind. The blood-vessels expand and blushing is increased, new sensations and feelings arise, the imagination blossoms, love of nature is born, music is felt in a new, more inward way, fatigue comes easier and sooner; and if heredity and environment enable the individual to cross this bridge successfully there is sometimes almost a break of continuity, and a new being emerges. The drill methods of the preceding period must be slowly relaxed and new appeals made to freedom and interest. We can no longer coerce a break, but must lead and inspire if we would avoid arrest. Individuality must have a longer tether. Never is the power to appreciate so far ahead of the power to express, and never does understanding so outstrip ability to explain. Overaccuracy is atrophy. Both mental and moral acquisition sink at once too deep to be reproduced by examination without injury both to intellect and will. There is nothing in the environment to which the adolescent nature does not keenly respond. With pedagogic tact we can teach about everything we know that is really worth knowing; but if we amplify and morselize instead of giving great wholes, if we let the hammer that strikes the bell rest too long against it and deaden the sound, and if we wait before each methodic step till the pupil has reproduced all the last, we starve and retard the soul, which is now all insight and receptivity. Plasticity is at its maximum, utterance at its minimum. The inward traffic obstructs the outer currents. Boys especially are often dumb-bound, monophrastic, inarticulate, and semi-aphasic save in their own vigorous and inelegant way. Nature prompts to a modest reticence for which the deflowerers of all ephebic naiveté should have some respect. Deep interests arise which are almost as sacred as is the hour of visitation of the Holy Ghost to the religious teacher. The mind at times grows in leaps and bounds in a way that seems to defy the great enemy, fatigue; and yet when the teacher grows a little tiresome the pupil is tired in a moment. Thus we have the converse danger of forcing knowledge upon unwilling and unripe minds that have no love for it, which is in many ways psychologically akin to a nameless crime that in some parts of the country meets summary vengeance.

    (A) The heart of education as well as its phyletic root is the vernacular literature and language. These are the chief instruments of the social as well as of the ethnic and patriotic instinct. The prime place of the former we saw in the last chapter, and we now pass to the latter, the uniqueness of which should first be considered.

    The Century, the largest complete dictionary of English, claims to have 250,000 words, as against 55,000 in the old Webster’s Unabridged. Worcester’s Unabridged of 1860 has 105,000; Murray’s, now in L, it is said, will contain 240,000 principal and 140,000 compound words, or 380,000 words in all. The dictionary of the French Academy has 33,000; that of the Royal Spanish Academy, 50,000; the Dutch dictionary of Van Dale, 86,000; the Italian and Portuguese, each about 50,000 literary, or 150,000 encyclopedic words. Of course, words can really be counted hardly more than ideas or impressions, and compounds, dialects, obsolete terms, localisms, and especially technical terms, swell the number indefinitely. A competent philologist[2] says, if given large liberty, he “will undertake to supply 1,000,000 English words for 1,000,000 American dollars.” Chamberlain[3] estimates that our language contains more than two score as many words as all those left us from the Latin. Many savage languages contain only a very few thousand, and some but a few hundred, words. Our tongue is essentially Saxon in its vocabulary and its spirit and, from the time when it was despised and vulgar, has followed an expansion policy, swallowing with little modification terms not only from classical antiquity, but from all modern languages—Indian, African, Chinese, Mongolian—according to its needs, its adopted children far outnumbering those of its own blood. It absorbs at its will the slang of the street gamin, the cant of thieves and beggars; is actually creative in the baby talk of mothers and nurses; drops, forgets, and actually invents new words with no pedigree like those of Lear, Carrol, and many others.[4]

    In this vast field the mind of the child early begins to take flight. Here his soul finds its native breath and vital air. He may live as a peasant, using, as Max Müller says many do, but a few hundred words during his lifetime; or he may need 8,000, like Milton, 15,000, like Shakespeare, 20,000 or 30,000, like Huxley, who commanded both literary and technical terms; while in understanding, which far outstrips, use, a philologist may master perhaps 100,000 or 200,000 words. The content of a tongue may contain only folk-lore and terms for immediate practical life, or this content may be indefinitely elaborated in a rich literature and science. The former is generally well on in its development before speech itself becomes an abject of study. Greek literature was fully grown when the Sophists, and finally Aristotle, developed the rudiments of grammar, the parts of speech being at first closely related with his ten metaphysical categories. Our modern tongue had the fortune, unknown to those of antiquity, when it was crude and despised, to be patronized and regulated by Latin grammarians, and has had a long experience, both for good and evil, with their conserving and uniformitizing instincts. It has, too, a long history of resistance to this control. Once spelling was a matter of fashion or even individual taste; and as the constraint grew, two pedagogues in the thirteenth century fought a duel for the right spelling of the word, and that maintained by the survivor prevailed. Phonic and economic influences are now again making some headway against orthographic orthodoxy here; so with definitions. In the days of Johnson’s dictionary, individuality still had wide range in determining meanings. In pronunciation, too: we may now pronounce the word tomato in six ways, all sanctioned by dictionaries. Of our tongue in particular it is true, as Tylor says in general, condensing a longer passage, “take language all in all, it is the product of a rough-and-ready ingenuity and of the great rule of thumb. It is an old barbaric engine, which in its highest development is altered, patched, and tinkered into capability. It is originally and naturally a product of low culture, developed by ages of conscious and unconscious improvement to answer more or less perfectly the requirements of modern civilization.”

    It is plain, therefore, that no grammar, and least of all that derived from the prim, meager Latin contingent of it, is adequate to legislate for the free spirit of our magnificent tongue. Again, if this is ever done and English ever has a grammar that is to it what Latin grammar is to that language, it will only be when the psychology of speech represented, e.g., in Wundt’s Psychologie der Sprache,[5] which is now compiling and organizing the best elements from all grammars, is complete. The reason why English speakers find such difficulty in learning other languages is because ours has so far outgrown them by throwing off not only inflections but many old rules of syntax, that we have had to go backward to an earlier and more obsolescent stage of human development. In 1414, at the Council of Constance, when Emperor Sigismund was rebuked for a wrong gender, he replied, “I am King of the Romans and above grammar.” Thomas Jefferson later wrote, “Where strictures of grammar does not weaken expression it should be attended to; but where by a small grammatical negligence the energy of an idea is condensed or a word stands for a sentence, I hold grammatical rigor in contempt.” Browning, Whitman, and Kipling deliberately violate grammar and secure thereby unique effects neither asking nor needing excuse.

    By general consent both high school and college youth in this country are in an advanced stage of degeneration in the command of this the world’s greatest organ of the intellect; and that, despite the fact that the study of English often continues from primary into college grades, that no topic counts for more, and that marked deficiency here often debars from all other courses. Every careful study of the subject for nearly twenty years shows deterioration, and Professor Shurman, of Nebraska, thinks it now worse than at any time for forty years. We are in the case of many Christians described by Dante, who strove by prayers to get nearer to God when in fact with every petition they were departing farther from him. Such a comprehensive fact must have many causes.

    I. One of these is the excessive time given to other languages just at the psychological period of greatest linguistic plasticity and capacity for growth. School invention and tradition is so inveterate that it is hard for us to understand that there is little educational value—and perhaps it is deëducational—to learn to tell the time of day or name a spade in several different tongues or to learn to say the Lord’s Prayer in many different languages, any one of which the Lord only can understand. The polyglot people that one meets on great international highways of travel are linguists only in the sense that the moke on the variety stage who plays a dozen instruments equally badly is a musician. It is a psychological impossibility to pass through the apprenticeship stage of learning foreign languages at the age when the vernacular is setting without crippling it. The extremes are the youth in ancient Greece studying his own language only and the modern high school boy and girl dabbling in three or perhaps four languages. Latin, which in the eight years preceding 1898 increased one hundred and seventy-four per cent. in American high schools, while the proportion entering college in the country and even in Massachusetts steadily declined, is the chief offender. In the day of its pedagogical glory Latin was the universal tongue of the learned. Sturm’s idea was to train boys so that if suddenly transported to ancient Rome or Greece they would be at home there. Language, it was said, was the chief instrument of culture; Latin, the chief language and therefore a better drill in the vernacular than the vernacular itself. Its rules were wholesome swathing bands for the modern languages when in their infancy. Boys must speak only Latin on the playground. They thought, felt, and developed an intellectual life in and with that tongue.[6] But how changed all this is now. Statistical studies show that five hours a week for a year gives command of but a few hundred words, that two years does not double this number, and that command of the language and its resources in the original is almost never attained, but that it is abandoned not only by the increasing percentage that do not go to college but also by the increasing percentage who drop it forever at the college door. Its enormous numerical increase due to high school requirements, the increasing percentage of girl pupils more ready to follow the teacher’s advice, in connection with the deteriorating quality of the girls—inevitable with their increasing numbers, the sense that Latin means entering upon a higher education, the special reverence for it by Catholic children, the overcrowded market for Latin teachers whom a recent writer says can be procured by the score at less rates than in almost any other subject, the modern methods of teaching it which work well with less knowledge of it by the teacher than in the case of other school topics, have been attended perhaps inevitably by steady pedagogic decline despite the vaunted new methods; until now the baby Latin in the average high school class is a kind of sanctified relic, a ghost of a ghost, suggesting Swift’s Struldbrugs, doomed to physical immortality but shriveling and with increasing horror of all things new. In 1892 the German emperor declared it a shame for a boy to excel in Latin composition, and in the high schools of Sweden and Norway it has been practically abandoned. In the present stage of its educational decadence the power of the dead hand is strongly illustrated by the new installation of the old Roman pronunciation with which our tongue has only remote analogies, which makes havoc with proper names which is unknown and unrecognized in the schools of the European continent, and which makes a pedantic affectation out of more vocalism. I do not know nor care whether the old Romans pronounced thus or not, but if historic fidelity in this sense has pedagogic justification, why still teach a text like the Viri Romae, which is not a classic but a modern pedagogue’s composition?

    I believe profoundly in the Latin both as a university specialty and for all students who even approach mastery, but for the vast numbers who stop in the early stages of proficiency it is disastrous to the vernacular. Compare the evils of translation English, which not even the most competent and laborious teaching can wholly prevent and which careless mechanical instruction directly fosters, with the vigorous fresh productions of a boy or girl writing or speaking of something of vital present interest. The psychology of translation shows that it gives the novice a consciousness of etymologies which rather impedes than helps the free movement of the mind. Jowett said in substance that it is almost impossible to render either of the great dead languages into English without compromise, and this tends to injure the idiomatic mastery of one’s own tongue, which can be got only by much hard experience in uttering our own thoughts before trying to shape the dead thoughts of others into our language. We confound the little knowledge of word-histories which Latin gives with the far higher and subtler sentence-sense which makes the soul of one language so different from that of another, and training in which ought not to end until one has become more or less of a stylist and knows how to hew out modes of expressing his own individuality in great language. There is a sense in which Macaulay was not an Englishman at all, but a Ciceronian Latinist who foisted an alien style upon our tongue; and even Addison is a foreigner compared to the virile Kipling. The nature and needs of the adolescent mind demand bread and meat, while Latin rudiments are husks. In his autobiography, Booker Washington says that for ten years after their emancipation, the two chief ambitions of the young negro of the South were to hold office and to study Latin, and he adds that the chief endeavor of his life has been against these tendencies. For the American boy and girl, high school too often means Latin. This gives at first a pleasing sense of exaltation to a higher stage of life, but after from one to three years the great majority who enter the high school drop out limp and discouraged for many reasons, largely, however, because they are not fed. Defective nutrition of the mind also causes a restlessness, which enhances all the influences which make boys and girls leave school.

    II. The second cause of this degeneration is the subordination of literature and content to language study. Grammar arises in the old age of language. As once applied to our relatively grammarless tongue it always was more or less of a school-made artifact and an alien yoke, and has become increasingly so as English has grown great and free. Its ghost, in the many textbooks devoted to it, lacks just the quality of logic which made and besouled it. Philology, too, with all its magnificence, is not a product of the nascent stages of speech. In the college, which is its stronghold, it has so inspired professors of English that their ideal is to be critical rather than creative till they prefer the minute reading of a few masterpieces to a wide general knowledge, and a typical university announces that “in every case the examiners will treat mere knowledge of books as less important than the ability to write good English” that will parse and that is spelled, punctuated, capitalized, and paragraphed aright. Good professors of English literature are hard to find, and upon them philologists, who are plentiful, look with a certain condescension. Many academic chairs of English are filled by men whose acquaintance of our literature is very narrow, who wish to be linguistic and not literary, and this is true even in ancient tongues.

    At a brilliant examination, a candidate for the doctor’s degree who had answered many questions concerning the forms of Lucretius, when asked whether he was a dramatist, historian, poet, or philosopher, did not know, and his professor deemed the question improper. I visited the eleventh recitation in Othello in a high school class of nineteen pupils, not one of whom knew how the story ended, so intent had they been kept on its verbiage. Hence, too, has come the twelve feet of text-books on English on my shelves with many standard works, edited for schools, with more notes than text. Fashion that works from above down the grades and college entrance requirements are in large measure responsible for this, perhaps now the worst case of the prostitution of content to form.

    Long exposure to this method of linguistic manicuring tends to make students who try to write ultra-fastidiously, seeking an over-refined elaboration of petty trifles, as if the less the content the greater the triumph of form alone could be. These petty but pretty nothings are like German confectionery, that appeals to the eye but has little for taste and is worse than nothing for the digestion. It is like straining work on an empty stomach. For youth this embroidery of details is the precocious senescence that Nordau has so copiously illustrated as literary decadence. Language is vastly larger than all its content, and the way to teach it is to focus the mind upon story, history, oratory, drama, Bible, for their esthetic, mental, and above all, moral content, as shown in the last chapter. The more unconscious processes that reflect imitatively the linguistic environment and that strike out intuitively oral and written vents for interests so intense that they must be told and shared, are what teach us how to command the resources of our mother tongue. These prescriptions and corrections and consciousness of the manifold ways of error are never so peculiarly liable to hinder rather than to help as in early adolescence, when the soul has a new content and a new sense for it, and so abhors and is so incapable of precision and propriety of diction. To hold up the flights of exuberant youth by forever being on the hunt for errors is, to borrow the language of the gridiron, low tackle, and I would rather be convicted of many errors by such methods than use them. Of course this has its place, but it must always be subordinated to a larger view, as in one of the newly discovered logia ascribed to Jesus, who, when he found a man gathering sticks on Sunday, said to him, “If you understand what you are doing, it is well, but if not, thou shalt be damned.” The great teacher who, when asked how he obtained such rare results in expression, answered, “By carefully neglecting it and seeking utter absorption in subject-matter,” was also a good practical psychologist. This is the inveterate tendency that in other ages has made pedagogic scribes, Talmudists, epigoni, and sophists, who have magnified the letter and lost the spirit. But there are yet other seats of difficulty.

    III. It is hard and, in the history of the race, a late change, to receive language through the eye which reads instead of through the ear which hears. Not only is perception measurably quite distinctly slower, but book language is related to oral speech somewhat as an herbarium is to a garden, or a museum of stuffed specimens to a menagerie. The invention of letters is a novelty in the history of the race that spoke for countless ages before it wrote. The winged word of mouth is saturated with color, perhaps hot with feeling, musical with inflection, is the utterance of a living present personality, the consummation of man’s gregarious instincts. The book is dead and more or less impersonal, best apprehended in solitude, its matter more intellectualized; it deals in remoter second-hand knowledge so that Plato reproached Aristotle as being a reader, one remove from the first spontaneous source of original impressions and ideas, and the doughty medieval knights scorned reading as a mere clerk’s trick, not wishing to muddle their wits with other people’s ideas when their own were good enough for them. But although some of the great men in history could not read, and though some of the illiterate were often morally and intellectually above some of the literate, the argument here is that the printed page must not be too suddenly or too early thrust between the child and life. The plea is for moral and objective work, more stories, narratives, and even vivid readings, as is now done statedly in more than a dozen of the public libraries of the country, not so often by teachers as by librarians, all to the end that the ear, the chief receptacle of language, be maintained in its dominance, that the fine sense of sound, rhythm, cadence, pronunciation, and speech-music generally be not atrophied, that the eye which normally ranges freely from far to near be not injured by the confined treadmill and zigzag of the printed page.

    Closely connected with this, and perhaps psychologically worse, is the substitution of the pen and the scribbling fingers for the mouth and tongue. Speech is directly to and from the soul. Writing, the deliberation of which fits age better than youth, slows down its impetuosity many fold, and is in every way farther removed from vocal utterance than is the eye from the ear. Never have there been so many pounds of paper, so many pencils, and such excessive scribbling as in the calamopapyrus [Pen-paper] pedagogy of to-day and in this country. Not only has the daily theme spread as infection, but the daily lesson is now extracted through the point of a pencil instead of from the mouth. The tongue rests and the curve of writer’s cramp takes a sharp turn upward, as if we were making scribes, reporters, and proof-readers. In some schools, teachers seem to be conducting correspondence classes with their own pupils. It all makes excellent busy work, keeps the pupils quiet and orderly, and allows the school output to be quantified, and some of it gives time for more care in the choice of words. But is it a gain to substitute a letter for a visit, to try to give written precedence over spoken forms? Here again we violate the great law that the child repeats the history of the race, and that, from the larger historic standpoint, writing as a mode of utterance is only the latest fashion.

    Of course the pupils must write, and write well, just as they must read, and read much; but that English suffers from insisting upon this double long circuit too early and cultivates it to excess, devitalizes school language and makes it a little unreal, like other affectations of adult ways, so that on escaping from its thraldom the child and youth slump back to the language of the street as never before. This is a false application of the principle of learning to do by doing. The young do not learn to write by writing, but by reading and hearing. To become a good writer one must read, feel, think, experience, until he has something to say that others want to hear. The golden age of French literature, as Gaston Deschamps and Brunetière have lately told us, was that of the salon, when conversation dominated letters, set fashions, and made the charm of French style. Its lowest ebb was when bookishness led and people began to talk as they wrote.

    IV. The fourth cause of degeneration of school English is the growing preponderance of concrete words for designating things of sense and physical acts, over the higher element of language that names and deals with concepts, ideas, and non-material things. The object-lesson came in as a reaction against the danger of merely verbal and definition knowledge and word memory. Now it has gone so far that not only things but even languages, vernacular and foreign, are taught by appeals to the eye. More lately, elementary science has introduced another area of pictures and things while industrial education has still further greatly enlarged the material sensori-motor element of training. Geography is taught with artifacts, globes, maps, sand boxes, drawing. Miss Margaret Smith[7] counted two hundred and eighty objects that must be distributed and gathered for forty pupils in a single art lesson. Instruction, moreover, is more and more busied upon parts and details rather than wholes, upon analysis rather than synthesis. Thus in modern pedagogy there is an increased tyranny of things, a growing neglect or exclusion of all that is unseen.

    The first result of this is that the modern school child is more and more mentally helpless without objects of sense. Conversation is increasingly concrete, if not of material things and persons present in time and even place. Instead of dealing with thoughts and ideas, speech and writing is close to sense and the words used are names for images and acts. But there is another higher part of language that is not so abjectly tied down to perception, but that lives, moves, and has its being in the field of concepts rather than percepts, which, to use Earle’s distinction, is symbolic and not presentative, that describes thinking that is not mere contiguity in space or sequence in time but that is best in the far higher and more mental associations of likeness, that is more remote from activity, that, to use logical terminology, is connotative and not merely denotative, that has extension as well as intension, that requires abstraction and generalization. Without this latter element higher mental development is lacking because this means more than word-painting the material world.

    Our school youth today suffer from just this defect. If their psychic operations can be called thought it is of that elementary and half animal kind that consists imagery. Their talk with each other is of things of present and immediate interest. They lack even the elements of imagination, which makes new combinations and is creative, because they are dominated by mental pictures of the sensory. Large views that take them afield away from the persons and things and acts they know do not appeal to them. Attempts to think rigorously are too hard. The teacher feels that all the content of mind must come in through the senses, and that if these are well fed, inferences and generalizations will come of themselves later. Many pupils have never in their lives talked five minutes before others on any subject whatever that can properly be called intellectual. It irks them to occupy themselves with purely mental processes, so enslaved are they by what is near and personal, and thus they are impoverished in the best elements of language. It is as if what are sometimes called the associative fibers, both ends of which are in the brain, were dwarfed in comparison with the afferent and efferent fibers that mediate sense and motion.

    That the soul of language as an instrument of thought consists in this non-presentative element, so often lacking, is conclusively shown in the facts of speech diseases. In the slowly progressive aphasias, of late so carefully studied, the words first lost are those of things and acts most familiar to the patient, while the words that persist longest in the wreckage of the speech-centers are generally words that do not designate the things of sense. A tailor loses the power to name his chalk, measure, shears, although he can long talk fluently of what little he may chance to know of God, beauty, truth, virtue, happiness, prosperity, etc. The farmer is unable to name the cattle in his yard or his own occupations, although he can reason as well as ever about politics; can not discuss coin or bills, but can talk of financial policies and securities, or about health and wealth generally. The reason obvious. It is because concrete thinking has two forms, the word and the image, and the latter so tends to take the place of the former that it can be lost to both sense and articulation without great impairment, whereas conceptual thinking lacks imagery and depends upon words alone, and hence these must persist because they have no alternate form which vicariates for them.

    In its lower stages, speech is necessarily closely bound up with the concrete world; but its real glory appears in its later stages and its higher forms, because there the soul takes flight in the intellectual world, learns to live amidst its more spiritual realities, to put names to thoughts, which is far higher than to put names to things. It is in this world that the best things in the best books live; and the modern school-bred distaste for them, the low-ranged mental action that hovers near the coastline of matter and can not launch out with zest into the open sea of thoughts, holding communion with the great dead of the past or the great living of the distant present, seems almost like a slow progressive abandonment of the high attribute of speech and the lapse toward infantile or animal picture-thinking. If the school is slowly becoming speechless in this sense, if it is lapsing in all departments toward busy work and losing silence, repose, the power of logical thought, and even that of meditation, which is the muse of originality, this is perhaps the gravest of all these types of decay. If the child has no resources in solitude, can not think without the visual provocation, is losing subjective life, enthusiasm for public, social, ethical questions, is crippled for intellectual pursuits, cares only in a languid way for literary prose and poetry, responds only to sensuous stimuli and events at short range, and is indifferent to all wide relations and moral responsibility, cares only for commercial self-interest, the tactics of field sport, laboratory occupations and things which call be illustrated from a pedagogic museum, then the school is dwarfing, in dawning maturity, the higher powers that belong to this stage of development and is responsible for mental arrest.

    In this deplorable condition, if we turn to the child study of speech for help, we find that, although it has been chiefly occupied with infant vocabularies, there are already a very few and confessedly crude and feeble beginnings, but even these shed more light on the lost pathway than all other sources combined. The child once set in their midst again corrects the wise men. We will first briefly recapitulate these and then state and apply their lessons.

    Miss Williams[8] found that out of 253 young ladies only 133 did not have favorite sounds, [long “a”] and a leading among the vowels, and l, r and m among the constants. Eighty-five had favorite words often lugged in, 329 being good. Two hundred and twenty-one, as children, had favorite proper names in geography, and also for boys, but especially for girls. The order of a few of the latter is as follows: Helen, 36; Bessie, 25; Violet and Lilly, 20; Elsie and Beatrice, 18; Dorothy and Alice, 17; Ethel, 15; Myrtle, 14; Mabel, Marguerite, Pearl, and Rose, 13; May, 12; Margaret, Daisy, and Grace, 11; Ruth and Florence, 9; Gladys, 8; Maud, Nellie, and Gertrude, 7; Blanche and Mary, 6; Eveline and Pansy, 5; Belle, Beulah, Constance, Eleanor, Elizabeth, Eve, Laura, Lulu, Pauline, Virginia, and Vivian, 4 each, etc.

    Of ten words found interesting to adolescents, murmur was the favorite, most enjoying its sound. Lullaby, supreme, annannamannannaharoumlemay, immemorial, lillibulero, burbled, and incarnadine were liked by most, while zigzag and shigsback were not liked. This writer says that adolescence is marked by some increased love of words for motor activity and in interest in words as things in themselves, but shows a still greater rise of interest in new words and pronunciations; “above all, there is a tremendous rise in interest in words as instruments of thought.” The flood of new experiences, feelings, and views finds the old vocabulary inadequate, hence “the dumb, bound feeling of which most adolescents at one time or another complain and also I suspect from this study in the case of girls, we have an explanation of the rise of interest in slang.” “The second idea suggested by our study is the tremendous importance of hearing in the affective side of language.”

    Conradi[9] found that of 273 returns concerning children’s pleasure in knowing or using new words, ninety-two per cent were affirmative, eight per cent negative, and fifty per cent gave words especially “liked.” Some were partial to big words, some for those with z in them. Some found most pleasure in saying them to themselves and some in using them with others. In all there were nearly three hundred such words, very few of which were artificial. As to words pretty or queer in form or sound, his list was nearly as large, but the greater part of the words were different. Sixty per cent of all had had periods of spontaneously trying to select their vocabulary by making lists, studying the dictionary, etc. The age of those who did so would seem to average not far from early puberty, but the data are too meager for conclusion. A few started to go through the dictionary, some wished to astonish their companions or used large new words to themselves or their dolls. Seventy percent had had a passion for affecting foreign words when English would do as well. Conradi says “the age varies from twelve to eighteen, most being fourteen to sixteen.” Some indulge this tendency in letters, and would like to do so in conversation, but fear ridicule. Fifty-six per cent reported cases of superfine elegance or affected primness or precision in the use of words. Some had spells of effort in this direction, some belabor compositions to get a style that suits them, some memorise fine passages to this end, or modulate their voices to aid them, affect elegance with a chosen mate by agreement soliloquize before a glass with poses. According to his curve this tendency culminates at fourteen.

    Adjectivism, adverbism, and nounism, or marked disposition to multiply one or more of the above classes of words, and in the above order, also occur near the early teens. Adjectives are often used as adverbial prefixes to other adjectives, and here favorite words are marked. Nearly half of Conradi’s reports show it, but the list of words so used is small.

    [Illustration: Graph showing Slang, Reading Craze, and Precision by
    Age.]

    Miss Williams presents on interesting curve of slang confessed as being both attractive and used by 226 out of 251. From this it appears that early adolescence is the curve of greatest pleasure in its use, fourteen being the culminating year. There is very little until eleven, when the curve for girls rises very rapidly, to fall nearly us rapidly from fifteen to seventeen. Ninety-three out of 104 who used it did so despite criticism.

    Conradi, who collected and prints a long list of current slang words and phrases, found that of 295 young boys and girls not one failed to confess their use, and eighty-five per cent of all gave the age at which they thought it most common. On this basis he constructs the above curve, comparing with this the curve of a craze for reading and for precision in speech.

    The reasons given are, in order of frequency, that slang was more emphatic, more exact, more concise, convenient, sounded pretty, relieved formality, was natural, manly, appropriate, etc. Only a very few thought it was vulgar, limited the vocabulary, led to or was a substitute for swearing, destroyed exactness, etc. This writer attempts a provisional classification of slang expressions under the suggestive heads of rebukes to pride, boasting and loquacity, hypocrisy, quaint and emphatic negatives, exaggerations, exclamations, mild oaths, attending to one’s own business and not meddling or interfering, names for money, absurdity, neurotic effects of surprise or shock, honesty and lying, getting confused, fine appearance and dress, words for intoxication which Partridge has collected,[10]for anger collated by Chamberlain,[11] crudeness or innocent naïveté, love and sentimentality, etc. Slang is also rich in describing conflicts of all kinds, praising courage, censuring inquisitiveness, and as a school of moral discipline, but he finds, however, a very large number unclassified; and while he maintains throughout a distinction between that used by boys and by girls, sex differences are not very marked. The great majority of terms are mentioned but once, and a few under nearly all of the above heads have great numerical precedence. A somewhat striking fact is the manifold variations of a pet typical form. Twenty-three shock expletives, e.g., are, “Wouldn’t that —— you?” the blank being filled by jar, choke, cook, rattle, scorch, get, start, etc., or instead of you adjectives are devised. Feeling is so intense and massive, and psychic processes are so rapid, forcible, and undeveloped that the pithiness of some of those expressions makes them brilliant and creative works of genius, and after securing an apprenticeship are sure of adoption. Their very lawlessness helps to keep speech from rigidity and desiccation, and they hit off nearly every essential phrase of adolescent life and experience.

    Conventional modes of speech do not satisfy the adolescent, so that he is often either reticent or slangy. Walt Whitman[12] says that slang is “an attempt of common humanity to escape from bald literalism and to express itself illimitably, which in the highest walks produces poets and poems”; and again, “Daring as it is to say so, in the growth of language it is certain that the retrospect of slang from the start would be the recalling from their nebulous condition of all that is poetical in the stores of human utterance.” Lowell[13] says, “There is death in the dictionary, and where language is too strictly limited by convention, the ground for expression to grow in is limited also, and we get a potted literature, Chinese dwarfs instead of healthy trees.” Lounsbury asserts that “slang is an effort on the part of the users of language to say something more vividly, strongly, concisely than the language existing permits it to be said. It is the source from which the decaying energies of speech are constantly refreshed.” Conradi adds in substance that weak or vicious slang is too feeble to survive, and what is vital enough to live fills a need. The final authority is the people, and it is better to teach youth to discriminate between good and bad slang rather than to forbid it entirely. Emerson calls it language in the making, its crude, vital, material. It is often an effective school of moral description, a palliative for profanity, and expresses the natural craving for superlatives. Faults are hit off and condemned with the curtness sententiousness of proverbs devised by youth to sanctify itself and correct its own faults. The pedagogue objects that it violates good form and established usage, but why should the habits of hundreds of years ago control when they can not satisfy the needs of youth, which requires a lingua franca of its own, often called “slanguage”? Most high school and college youth of both sexes have two distinct styles, that of the classroom which is as unnatural as the etiquette of a royal drawing-room reception or a formal call, and the other, that of their own breezy, free, natural life. Often these two have no relation to or effect upon each other, and often the latter is at times put by with good resolves to speak as purely and therefore as self-consciously as they knew, with petty fines for every slang expression. But very few, and these generally husky boys, boldly try to assert their own rude but vigorous vernacular in the field of school requirements.

    These simple studies in this vast field demonstrate little or nothing, but they suggest very much. Slang commonly expresses a moral judgment and falls into ethical categories. It usually concerns ideas, sentiment, and will, has a psychic content, and is never, like the language of the school, a mere picture of objects of sense or a description of acts. To restate it in correct English would be a course in ethics, courtesy, taste, logical predication and opposition, honesty, self-possession, modesty, and just the ideal and non-presentative mental content that youth most needs, and which the sensuous presentation methods of teaching have neglected. Those who see in speech nothing but form condemn it because it is vulgar. Youth has been left to meet these high needs alone, and the prevalence of these crude forms is an indictment of the delinquency of pedagogues in not teaching their pupils to develop and use their intellect properly. Their pith and meatiness are a standing illustration of the need of condensation for intellectual objects that later growth analyzes. These expressions also illustrate the law that the higher and larger the spiritual content, the grosser must be the illustration in which it is first couched. Further studies now in progress will, I believe, make this still clearer.

    Again, we see in the above, outcrops of the strong pubescent instinct to enlarge the vocabulary in two ways. One is to affect foreign equivalents. This at first suggests an appetency for another language like the dog-Latin gibberish of children. It is one of the motives that prompts many to study Latin or French, but it has little depth, for it turns out, on closer study, to be only the affectation of superiority and the love of mystifying others. The other is a very different impulse to widen the vernacular. To pause to learn several foreign equivalents of things of sense may be anti-educational if it limits the expansion of thought in our own tongue. The two are, in fact, often inversely related to each other. In giving a foreign synonym when the mind seeks a new native word, the pedagogue does not deal fairly. In this irradiation into the mother tongue, sometimes experience with the sentiment or feeling, act, fact, or object precedes, and then a name for it is demanded, or conversely the sound, size, oddness or jingle of the word is first attractive and the meaning comes later. The latter needs the recognition and utilization which the former already has. Lists of favorite words should be wrought out for spelling and writing and their meanings illustrated, for these have often the charm of novelty as on the frontier of knowledge and enlarge the mental horizon like new discoveries. We must not starve this voracious new appetite “for words as instruments of thought.”

    Interest in story-telling rises till twelve or thirteen, and thereafter falls off perhaps rather suddenly, partly because youth is now more interested in receiving than in giving. As in the drawing curve we saw a characteristic age when the child loses pleasure in creating as its power of appreciating pictures rapidly arises, so now, as the reading curve rises, auditory receptivity makes way for the visual method shown in the rise of the reading curve with augmented zest for book-method of acquisition. Darkness or twilight enhances the story interest in children, for it eliminates the distraction of sense and encourages the imagination to unfold its pinions, but the youthful fancy is less bat-like and can take its boldest flights in broad daylight. A camp-fire, or an open hearth with tales of animals, ghosts, heroism, and adventure can teach virtue, and vocabulary, style, and substance in their native unity.

    The pubescent reading passion is partly the cause and partly an effect of the new zest in and docility to the adult world and also of the fact that the receptive are now and here so immeasurably in advance of the creative powers. Now the individual transcends his own experience and learns to profit by that of others. There is now evolved a penumbral region in the soul more or less beyond the reach of all school methods, a world of glimpses and hints, and the work here is that of the prospector and not of the careful miner. It is the age of skipping and sampling, of pressing the keys lightly. What is acquired is not examinable but only suggestive. Perhaps nothing read now fails to leave its mark. It can not be orally reproduced at call, but on emergency it is at hand for use. As Augustine said of God, so the child might say of most of his mental content in these psychic areas, “If you ask me, I do not know; but if you do not ask me, I know very well”—a case analogous to the typical girl who exclaimed to her teacher, “I can do and understand this perfectly if you only won’t explain it.” That is why examinations in English, if not impossible, as Goldwin Smith and Oxford hold, are very liable to be harmful, and recitations and critical notes an impertinence, and always in danger of causing arrest of this exquisite romantic function in which literature comes in the closest relation to life, keeping the heart warm, reënforcing all its good motives, preforming choices, and universalizing its sympathies.

    R. W. Bullock[14] classified and tabulated 2,000 returns from school-children from the third to the twelfth grade, both inclusive, concerning their reading. From this it appeared that the average boy of the third grade “read 4.9 books in six months; that the average falls to 3.6 in the fourth and fifth grades and rises to a maximum of 6.5 at the seventh grade, then drops quite regularly to 3 in the twelfth grade at the end of the high school course.” The independent tabulation of returns from other cities showed little variation. “Grade for grade, the girls read more than the boys, and as a rule they reach their maximum a year sooner, and from a general maximum of 5.9 books there is a drop to 3.3 at the end of the course.” The age of reading may be postponed or accelerated perhaps nearly a year by the absence or presence of library facilities. Tabulating the short stories read per week, it was found that these averaged 2.1 in the third grade, rose to 7.7 per week in the seventh grade, and in the twelfth had fallen to 2.3, showing the same general tendency.

    The percentage tables for boys’ preference for eight classes of stories are here only suggestive. “War stories seem popular with third grade boys, and that liking seems well marked through the sixth, seventh, and eighth grades. Stories of adventure are popular all through the heroic period, reaching their maximum in the eighth and ninth grades. The liking for biography and travel or exploration grows gradually to a climax in the ninth grade, and remains well up through the course. The tender sentiment has little charm for the average grade boy, and only in the high school course does he acknowledge any considerable use of love stories. In the sixth grade he is fond of detective stories, but they lose their charm for him as he grows older.” For girls, “stories of adventure are popular in the sixth grade, and stories of travel are always enjoyed. The girl likes biography, but in the high school, true to her sex, she prefers stories of great women rather than great men, but because she can not get them reads those of men. Pity it is that the biographies of so few of the world’s many great women are written. The taste for love stories increases steadily to the end of the high school course. Beyond that we have no record.” Thus “the maximum amount of reading is done in every instance between the sixth and eighth grades, the average being in the seventh grade at an average age of fourteen and one-tenth years.” Seventy-five per cent of all discuss their reading with some one, and the writer urges that “when ninety-five per cent of the boys prefer adventure or seventy-five per cent of the girls prefer love stories, that is what they are going to read,” and the duty of the teacher or librarian is to see that they have both in the highest, purest form.

    Henderson[15] found that of 2,989 children from nine to fifteen, least books were read at the age of nine and most at the age of fifteen, and that there was “a gradual rise in amount throughout, the only break being in the case of girls at the age of fourteen and the boys at the age of twelve.” For fiction the high-water mark was reached for both sexes at eleven, and the subsequent fall is far less rapid for girls than for boys. “At the age of thirteen the record for travel and adventure stands highest in the case of the boys, phenomenally so. There is a gradual rise in history with age, and a corresponding decline in fiction.”

    Kirkpatrick[16] classified returns from 5,000 children from the fourth to the ninth grade in answer to questions that concerned their reading. He found a sudden increase in the sixth grade, when children are about twelve, when there is often a veritable, reading craze. Dolls are abandoned and “plays, games, and companionship of others are less attractive, and the reading hunger in many children becomes insatiable and is often quite indiscriminate.” It seems to “most frequently begin at about twelve years of age and continue at least three or four years,” after which increased home duties, social responsibilities, and school requirements reduce it and make it more discriminating in quality. “The fact that boys read about twice, as much history and travel as girls and only about two-thirds as much poetry and stories shows beyond question that the emotional and intellectual wants of boys and girls are essentially different before sexual maturity.”

    Miss Vostrovsky[17] found that among 1,269 children there was a great increase of taste for reading as shown by the number of books taken from the library, which began with a sharp rise at eleven and increased steadily to nineteen, when her survey ended; that boys read most till seventeen, and then girls took the precedence. The taste for juvenile stories was declining and that for fiction and general literature was rapidly increased. At about the sixteenth year a change took place in both sexes, “showing then the beginning of a greater interest in works of a more general character.” Girls read more fiction than boys at every age, but the interest in it begins to be very decided at adolescence. With girls it appears to come a little earlier and with greater suddenness, while the juvenile story maintains a strong hold upon boys even after the fifteenth year. The curve of decline in juvenile stories is much more pronounced in both sexes than the rise of fiction. Through the teens there is a great increase in the definiteness of answers to the questions why books were chosen. Instead of being read because they were “good” or “nice,” they were read because recommended, and later because of some special interest. Girls relied on recommendations more than boys. The latter were more guided by reason the former by sentiment. Nearly three times as many boys in the early teens chose books because they were exciting or venturesome. Even the stories which girls called exciting were tame compared with those chosen by boys. Girls chose books more than four times as often because of children in them, and more often because they ware funny. Boys care very little for style, but must have incidents and heroes. The author says “the special interest that girls have in fiction begins about the age of adolescence. After the sixteenth year the extreme delight in stories fades,” or school demands become more imperative and uniform. Girls prefer domestic stories and those with characters like themselves and scenes like those with which they are familiar. “No boy confesses to a purely girl’s story, while girls frankly do to an interesting story about boys. Women writers seem to appeal more to girls, men writers to boys. Hence, the authors named by each sex are almost entirely different. In fiction more standard works, were drawn by boys than by girls.” “When left to develop according to chance, the tendency is often toward a selection of books which unfit one for every-day living, either by presenting, on the one hand, too many scenes of delicious excitement or, on the other, by narrowing the vision to the wider possibilities of life.”

    Out of 523 full answers, Lancaster found that 453 “had what might be called a craze for reading at some time in the adolescent period,” and thinks parents little realize the intensity of the desire to read or how this nascent period is the golden age to cultivate taste and inoculate against reading what is bad. The curve rises rapidly from eleven to fourteen, culminates at fifteen, after which it falls rapidly. Some become omnivorous readers of everything in their way; others are profoundly, and perhaps for life, impressed with some single book; others have now crazes for history, now for novels, now for dramas or for poetry; some devour encyclopedias; some imagine themselves destined to be great novelists and compose long romances; some can give the dates with accuracy of the different periods of the development of their tastes from the fairy tales of early childhood to the travels and adventures of boyhood and then to romance, poetry, history, etc; and some give the order of their development of taste for the great poets.

    The careful statistics of Dr. Reyer show that the greatest greed of reading is from the age of fifteen to twenty-two, and is on the average greatest of all at twenty. He finds that ten per cent of the young people of this age do forty per cent of all the reading. Before twenty the curve ascends very rapidly, to fall afterward yet more rapidly as the need of bread-winning becomes imperative. After thirty-five the great public reads but little. Every youth should have his or her own library, which, however small, should be select. To seal some knowledge of their content with the delightful sense of ownership helps to preserve the apparatus of culture, keeps green early memories, or makes one of the best tangible mementoes of parental care and love. For the young especially, the only ark of safety in the dark and rapidly rising flood of printer’s ink is to turn resolutely away from the ideal of quantity to that of quality. While literature rescues youth from individual limitations and enables it to act and think more as spectators of all time, and sharers of all existence, the passion for reading may be excessive, and books which from the silent alcoves of our nearly 5,500 American libraries rule the world more now than ever before, may cause the young to neglect the oracles within, weaken them by too wide reading, make conversation bookish, and overwhelm spontaneity and originality with a superfetation of alien ideas.

    The reading passion may rage with great intensity when the soul takes its first long flight in the world of books, and ninety per cent of all Conradi’s cases showed it. Of these, thirty-two per cent read to have the feelings stirred and the desire of knowledge was a far less frequent motive. Some read to pass idle time, others to appear learned or to acquire a style or a vocabulary. Romance led. Some specialized, and with some the appetite was omnivorous. Some preferred books about or addressed to children, some fairy tales, and some sought only those for adults. The night is often invaded and some become “perfectly wild” over exciting adventures or the dangers and hardships of true lovers, laughing and crying as the story turns from grave to gay, and a few read several books a week. Some were forbidden and read by stealth alone, or with books hidden in their desks or under school books. Some few live thus for years in an atmosphere highly charged with romance, and burn out their fires wickedly early with a sudden and extreme expansiveness that makes life about them uninteresting and unreal, and that reacts to commonplace later. Conradi prints some two or three hundred favorite books and authors of early and of later adolescence. The natural reading of early youth is not classic nor blighted by compulsion or uniformity for all. This age seeks to express originality and personality in individual choices and tastes.

    Suggestive and briefly descriptive lists of best books and authors by authorities in different fields on which some time is spent in making selection, talks about books, pooling knowledge of them, with no course of reading even advised and much less prescribed, is the best guidance for developing the habit of rapid cursory reading. Others before professor De Long, of Colorado, have held that the power of reading a page in moment, as a mathematician sums up a column of figures and as the artist Doré was able to read a book by turning the leaves, can be attained by training and practise. School pressure should not suppress this instinct of omnivorous reading, which at this age sometimes prompts the resolve to read encyclopedias, and even libraries, or to sample everything to be found in books at home. Along with, but never suppressing, it there should be some stated reading, but this should lay down only kinds of reading like the four emphasized in the last chapter or offer a goodly number of large alternative groups of books and authors, like the five of the Leland Stanford University, and permit wide liberty of choice to both teacher and pupil. Few triumphs of the uniformitarians, who sacrifice individual needs to mechanical convenience in dealing with youth in masses, have been so sad as marking off and standardizing a definite quantum of requirements here. Instead of irrigating a wide field, the well-springs of literary interest are forced to cut a deep canyon and leave wide desert plains of ignorance on either side. Besides imitation, which reads what others do, is the desire to read something no one else does, and this is a palladium of individuality. Bad as is the principle, the selections are worse, including the saccharinity ineffable of Tennyson’s Princess (a strange expression of the progressive feminization of the high school and yet satirizing the scholastic aspiration of girls) which the virile boy abhors, books about books which are two removes from life, and ponderous Latinity authors which for the Saxon boy suggest David fighting in Saul’s armor, and which warp and pervert the nascent sentence-sense on a foreign model. Worst of all, the prime moral purpose of youthful reading is ignored in choices based on form and style; and a growing profusion of notes that distract from content to language, the study of which belongs in the college if not in the university, develops the tendencies of criticism before the higher powers of sympathetic appreciation have done their work.[18]

    (B) Other new mental powers and aptitudes are as yet too little studied. Very slight are the observations so far made, of children’s historic, which is so clearly akin to literary, interest and capacity. With regard to this and several other subjects in the curriculum we are in the state of Watts when he gazed at the tea-kettle and began to dream of the steam-engine; we are just recognizing a new power and method destined to reconstruct and increase the efficiency of education, but only after a long and toilsome period of limited successes.

    Mrs. Barnes[19], told a story without date, place, name, or moral and compared the questions which 1,250 children would like to have answered about it. She found that the interest of girls in persons, or the number who asked the question “who,” culminated at twelve, when it coincided with that of boys, but that the latter continued to rise to fifteen. The interest to know “place where” events occurred culminated at eleven with girls, and at fifteen, and at a far higher point, with boys. The questions “how” and “why,” calling for the method and reason, both culminated at twelve for girls and fifteen for boys, but were more infrequent and showed less age differences than the preceding question. Interest in the results of the action was most pronounced of all, culminating at twelve in girls and fifteen in boys. Details and time excited far less interest, the former jointly culminating for both sexes at eleven. Interest in the truth of the narrative was extremely slight, although it became manifest at fifteen, and was growing at sixteen. The number of inferences drawn steadily increased with age, although the increase was very slight after thirteen. Both legitimate and critical inferences increased after eleven, while imaginative inferences at that age had nearly reached their maximum. Interest in names was very strong throughout, as in primitive people. Boys were more curious concerning “who,” “where,” and “how”; girls as to “why.” In general, the historic curiosity of boys was greater than that of girls, and culminated later. The inferences drawn from an imagined finding of a log-house, boat, and arrows on a lonely island indicate that the power of inference, both legitimate and imaginative, develops strongly at twelve and thirteen, after which doubt and the critical faculties are apparent; which coincides with Mr. M.A. Tucker’s conclusion, that doubt develops at thirteen and that personal inference diminishes about that age.

    The children were given two accounts of the fall of Fort Sumter, one in the terms of a school history and the other a despatch of equal length from Major Anderson, and asked which was best, should be kept, and why. Choice of the narrative steadily declined after eleven and that of the despatch increased, the former reaching its lowest, the latter its highest, point at fifteen, indicating a preference for the first-hand record. The number of those whose choice was affected by style showed no great change, from twelve to fifteen, but rose very rapidly for the nest two years. Those who chose the despatch because it was true, signed, etc., increased rapidly in girls and boys throughout the teens, and the preference for the telegram as a more direct source increased very rapidly from thirteen to seventeen.

    Other studies of this kind led Mrs. Barnes to conclude that children remembered items by groups; that whole groups were often omitted; that those containing most action were best remembered; that what is remembered is remembered with great accuracy; that generalities are often made more specific; that the number of details a child carries away from a connected narrative is not much above fifty, so that their numbers should be limited; and from it all was inferred the necessity of accuracy, of massing details about central characters or incidents, letting action dominate, omitting all that is aside from the main line of the story, of bringing out cause and effect and dramatizing where possible.

    Miss Patterson[20] collated the answers of 2,237 children to the question “What does 1895 mean?” The blanks “Don’t know” decreased very rapidly from six to eight, and thereafter maintained a slight but constant percentage. Those who expanded the phase a little without intelligence were most numerous from eight to ten, while the proportion who gave a correct explanation rose quite steadily for both sexes and culminated at fourteen for girls and fifteen for boys. The latter only indicates the pupils of real historic knowledge. The writer concludes that “the sense of historical time is altogether lacking with children of seven, and may be described as slight up to the age of twelve.” History, it is thought, should be introduced early with no difference between boys and girls, but “up to the age of twelve or thirteen it should be presented in a series of striking biographies and events, appearing if possible in contemporary ballads and chronicles, and illustrated by maps, chronological charts, and as richly as possible by pictures of contemporary objects, buildings, and people.” At the age of fourteen or fifteen, another sort of work should appear. Original sources should still be used, but they should illustrate not “the picture of human society moving before us in a long panorama, but should give us the opportunity to study the organization, thought, feeling, of a time as seen in its concrete embodiments, its documents, monuments, men, and books.” The statesmen, thinkers, poets, should now exceed explorers and fighters; reflection and interpretation, discrimination of the true from the false, comparison, etc., are now first in order; while later yet, perhaps in college, should come severer methods and special monographic study.

    Studies of mentality, so well advanced for infants and so well begun for lower grades, are still very meager for adolescent stages so far as they bear on growth in the power to deal with arithmetic, drawing and pictures, puzzles, superstitions, collections, attention, reason, etc. Enough has been done to show that with authority to collect data on plans and by methods that can now be operated and with aid which should now be appropriated by school boards and teachers’ associations, incalculable pedagogic economy could be secured and the scientific and professional character of teaching every topic in upper grammar and high school and even in the early college grades be greatly enhanced. To enter upon this laborious task in every branch of study is perhaps our chief present need and duty to our youth in school, although individual studies like that of Binet[21] belong elsewhere.

    (C) The studies of memory up the grades show characteristic adolescent changes, and some of these results are directly usable in school.

    Bolton[22] tested the power of 1,500 children to remember and write dictated digits, and found, of course, increasing accuracy with the older pupils. He also found that the memory span increased with age rather than with the growth of intelligence as determined by grade. The pupils depended largely upon visualisation, and this and concentrated attention suggested that growth of memory did not necessarily accompany intellectual advancement. Girls generally surpassed boys, and as with clicks too rapid to be counted, it was found that when the pupils reached the limits of their span, the number of digits was overestimated. The power of concentrated and prolonged attention was tested. The probability of error for the larger number of digits, 7 and 8, decreased in a marked way with the development of pubescence, at least up to fourteen years, with the suggestion of a slight rise again at fifteen.

    In comprehensive tests of the ability of Chicago children to remember figures seen, heard, or repeated by them, it was found that, from seven to nine, auditory were slightly better remembered than visual impressions. From that age the latter steadily increased over the former. After thirteen, auditory memory increased but little, and was already about ten per cent behind visual, which continued to increase at least till seventeen. Audiovisual memory was better than either alone, and the span of even this was improved when articulatory memory was added. When the tests were made upon pupils of the same age in different grades it was found in Chicago that memory power, whether tested by sight, hearing, or articulation, was best in those pupils whose school standing was highest, and least where standing was lowest.

    When a series of digits was immediately repeated orally and a record made, it was found[23] that while from the age of eight to twelve the memory span increased only eight points, from fourteen to eighteen it increased thirteen points. The number of correct reproductions of numbers of seven places increased during the teens, although this class of children remain about one digit behind normal children of corresponding age. In general, though not without exceptions, it was found that intelligence grew with memory span, although the former is far more inferior to that of the normal child than the latter, and also that weakness of this kind of memory is not an especially prominent factor of weak-mindedness.

    Shaw[24] tested memory in 700 school children by dividing a story of 324 words into 152 phrases, having it read and immediately reproduced by them, and selecting alternate grades from the third grammar to the end of the high school, with a few college students. The maximum power of this kind of memory was attained by boys in the high school period. Girls remembered forty-three per cent in the seventh grade, and in the high school forty-seven per cent. The increase by two-year periods was most rapid between the third and fifth grades. Four terms were remembered on the average by at least ninety per cent of the pupils, 41 by fifty per cent, and 130 by ten per cent. The story written out in the terms remembered by each percentage from ten to ninety affords a most interesting picture of the growth of memory, and even its errors of omission, insertion, substitution and displacement. “The growth of memory is more rapid in the case of girls than boys, and the figures suggest a coincidence with the general law, that the rapid development incident to puberty occurs earlier in girls than in boys.”

    In a careful study of children’s memory, Kemsies[25] concludes that the quality of memory improves with age more rapidly than the quantity.

    W.G. Monroe tested 275 boys and 293 girls, well distributed, from seven to seventeen years of age, and found a marked rise for both visual and auditory memory at fifteen for both sexes. For both sexes, also, auditory memory was best at sixteen and visual at fifteen.

    When accuracy in remembering the length of tone was used as a test, it was found there was loss from six to seven and gain from seven to eight for both sexes. From eight to nine girls lost rapidly for one and gained rapidly for the following year, while boys were nearly stationary till ten, after which both sexes gained to their maximum at fourteen years of age and declined for the two subsequent years, both gaining power from sixteen to seventeen, but neither attaining the accuracy they had at fourteen.[26]

    [Illustration: Girls and Boys at Memory Reproductions compared.]

    Netschajeff[27] subjected 637 school children, well distributed between the ages of nine and eighteen, to the following tests. Twelve very distinct objects were shown them, each for two seconds, which must them be immediately written down. Twelve very distinct noises were made out of sight; numbers of two figures each were read; three-syllable words, which were names of familiar objects, objects that suggested noises, words designating touch, temperature, and muscle sensations, words describing states of feeling, and names of abstract ideas also were given them. The above eight series of twelve each were all reproduced in writing, and showed that each kind of memory here tested increased with age, with some slight tendency to decline at or just before puberty, then to rise and to slightly decline after the sixteenth or seventeenth year. Memory for objects showed the greatest amount of increase during the year studied, and works for feeling next, although at all ages the latter was considerably below the former. Boys showed stronger memory for real impressions, and girls excelled for numbers and words. The difference of these two kinds of memory was less with girls than with boys. The greatest difference between the sexes lay between eleven and fourteen years. This seems, at eighteen or nineteen, to be slightly increased. “This is especially great at the age of puberty.” Children from nine to eleven have but slight power of reproducing emotions, but this increases in the next few years very rapidly, as does that of the abstract words. Girls from nine to eleven deal better with words than with objects; boys slightly excel with objects. Illusions in reproducing words which mistake sense, sound, and rhythm, which is not infrequent with younger children, decline with age especially at puberty. Up to this period girls are most subject to these illusions, and afterward boys. The preceding tables, in which the ordinates represent the number of correct reproductions and the abscissas the age, are interesting.

    Lobsien made tests similar to those of Netschajeff,[28] with modifications for greater accuracy, upon 238 boys and 224 girls from nine to fourteen and a half years of age. The preceding tables show the development of the various kinds of memory for boys and girls:

    BOYS.

    Age. Objects Noises Number Visual Acoustic Touch Feeling Sounds
    Concepts Concepts Concepts Concepts

    13-14-1/2 92.56 71.89 80.67 73.00 74.78 75.33 75.44 40.56 12-13 76.45 57.38 72.33 69.67 64.89 73.67 58.67 37.87 11-12 89.78 57.19 70.22 59.67 63.00 73.33 55.33 19.99 10-11 87.12 55.33 49.33 55.11 48.44 57.11 38.33 12.44 9-10 64.00 53.33 49.09 46.58 43.78 43.67 27.22 7.22

    Normal 82.2 59.02 64.8 60.6 59.4 64.2 31.2 24.0 value.

    GIRLS.

    13-14-1/2 99.56 82.67 87.22 96.67 71.44 82.00 70.22 41.33 12-13 92.89 75.56 74.89 77.22 63.11 74.67 67.33 34.89 11-12 94.00 56.00 73.56 72.78 72.11 70.89 73.33 28.22 10-11 75.78 46.22 62.44 56.22 54.78 58.78 43.22 10.44 9-10 89.33 46.22 50.44 54.22 38.22 51.11 32.89 6.89

    Normal 91.4 62.2 71.8 71.0 60.2 67.2 59.4 23.8 value.

    The table for boys shows in the fourteenth year a marked increase of memory for objects, noises, and feelings, especially as compared with the marked relative decline the preceding year, when there was a decided increase in visual concepts and senseless sounds. The twelfth year shows the greatest increase in number memory, acoustic impressions, touch, and feeling. The tenth and eleventh years show marked increase of memory for objects and their names. Thus the increase in the strength of memory is by no means the same year by year, but progress focuses on some forms and others are neglected. Hence each type of memory shows an almost regular increase and decrease in relative strength.

    The table for girls shown marked increase of all memory forms about the twelfth year. This relative increase is exceeded only in the fourteenth year for visual concepts. The thirteenth year shows the greatest increase for sounds and a remarkable regression for objects in passing from the lowest to the next grade above.

    In the accuracy of reproducing the order of impressions, girls much exceeded boys at all ages. For seen object, their accuracy was twice that of boys, the boys excelling in order only in number. In general, ability to reproduce a series of impressions increases and decreases with the power to reproduce in any order, but by no means in direct proportion to it. The effect of the last member in a series by a purely mechanical reproduction is best in boys. The range and energy of reproduction is far higher than ordered sequence. In general girls slightly exceed boys in recalling numbers, touch concepts, and sounds, and largely exceed in recalling feeling concepts, real things and visual concept.

    Colegrove[29] tabulated returns from the early memories of 1,658 correspondents with 6,069 memories, from which he reached the conclusions, represented in the following curves, for the earliest three memories of white males and females.

    In the cuts on the following page, the heavy line represents the first memory, the broken the second, and the dotted the third. Age at the time of reporting is represented in distance to the right, and the age of the person at the time of the occurrence remembered is represented by the distance upward. “There is a rise in all the curves at adolescence. This shows that, from the age of twelve to fifteen, boys do not recall so early memories as they do both before and after this period.” This Colegrove ascribes to the fact that the present seems so large and rich. At any rate, “the earliest memories of boys at the age of fourteen average almost four years.” His curves for girls show that the age of all the first three memories which they are able to recall is higher at fourteen than at any period before or after; that at seven and eight the average age of the first things recalled is nearly a year earlier than it is at fourteen. This means that at puberty there is a marked and characteristic obliteration of infantile memories which lapse to oblivion with augmented absorption in the present.

    [Illustration: Untitled Graph.]

    It was found that males have the greatest number of memories for protracted or repeated occurrences, for people, and clothing, topographical and logical matters; that females have better memories for novel occurrences or single impressions. Already at ten and eleven motor memories begin to decrease for females and increase for males. At fourteen and fifteen, motor memories nearly culminate for males, but still further decline for females. The former show a marked decrease in memory for relatives and playmates and an increase for other persons. Sickness and accidents to self are remembered less by males and better by females, as are memories of fears. At eighteen and nineteen there is a marked and continued increase in the visual memories of each sex and the auditory memory of females. Memory for the activity of others increases for both, but far more strongly for males. Colegrove concludes from his data that “the period of adolescence is one of great psychical awaking. A wide range of memories is found at this time. From the fourteenth year with girls and the fifteenth with boys the auditory memories are strongly developed. At the dawn of adolescence the motor memory of voice nearly culminates, and they have fewer memories of sickness and accidents to self. During this time the memory of other persons and the activity of others is emphasized in case of both boys and girls. In general, at this period the special sensory memories are numerous, and it is the golden age for motor memories. Now, too, the memories of high ideals, self-sacrifice, and self-forgetfulness are cherished. Wider interests than self and immediate friends become the objects of reflection and recollection.”

    After twenty there is marked change in the memory content. The male acquires more and the female less visual and auditory memories. The memories of the female are more logical, and topographical features increase. Memories of sickness and accidents to self decrease with the males and increase with the females, while in the case of both there is relative decline in the memories of sickness and accident to others. From all this it would appear that different memories culminate at different periods, and bear immediate relation to the whole mental life of the period. While perhaps some of the finer analyses of Colegrove may invite further confirmation, his main results given above are not only suggestive, but rendered very plausible by his evidence.

    Statistics based upon replies to the question as to whether pleasant or unpleasant experiences were best remembered, show that the former increase at eleven, rise rapidly at fourteen, and culminate at eighteen for males, and that the curve of painful memories follows the same course, although for both there is a drop at fifteen. For females, the pleasant memories increase rapidly from eleven to thirteen, decline a little at fourteen, rise again at sixteen, and culminate at seventeen, and the painful memories follow nearly the same course, only with a slight drop at fifteen. Thus, up to twenty-two for males, there is a marked preponderance of pleasant over painful memories, although the two rise and fall together. After thirty, unpleasant memories are but little recalled. For the Indians and negroes in this census, unpleasant memories play a far more and often preponderating rôle suggesting persecution and sad experiences. Different elements of the total content of memory come to prominence at different ages. He also found that the best remembered years of life are sixteen to seventeen for males and fifteen for females, and that in general the adolescent period has more to do than any other in forming and furnishing the memory plexus, while the seventh and eighth year are most poorly remembered.

    It is also known that many false memories insert themselves into the texture of remembered experiences. One dreams a friend is dead and thinks she is till she is met one day in the street; or dreams of a fire and inquires about it in the morning; dreams of a present and searches the house for it next day; delays breakfast for a friend, who arrived the night before in a dream, to come down to breakfast; a child hunts for a bushel of pennies dreamed of, etc. These phantoms falsify our memory most often, according to Dr. Colegrove, between sixteen and nineteen.

    Mnemonic devices prompt children to change rings to keep appointments, tie knots in the handkerchief, put shoes on the dressing-table, hide garments, associate faces with hoods, names with acts, things, or qualities they suggest; visualize, connect figures, letters with colors, etc. From a scrutiny of the original material, which I was kindly allowed to make, this appears to rise rapidly at puberty.

    [Footnote 1: See my Ideal School as Based on Child Study. Proceedings of the National Educational Association, 1901, pp. 470-490.]

    [Footnote 2: Charles P.G. Scott: The Number of Words in the English and Other Languages. Princeton University Bulletin, May, 1902, vol. 13, pp. 106-111.]

    [Footnote 3: The Teaching of English. Pedagogical Seminary, June, 1902, vol. 9, pp. 161-168.]

    [Footnote 4: See my Some Aspects of the Early Sense of Self. American
    Journal of Psychology, April, 1898, vol. 9, pp. 351-395.]

    [Footnote 5: Sprachgeschichte und Sprachpsychologie, mit Rucksicht auf
    B. Delbrück’s “Grundfragen der Sprachforschung.” Leipzig, W.
    Engelmann, 1901]

    [Footnote 6: Latin in the High School. By Edward Conradi. Pedagogical
    Seminary, March, 1905, vol. 12, pp. 1-26.]

    [Footnote 7: The Psychological and Pedagogical Aspect of Language.
    Pedagogical Seminary, December, 1903, vol. 10, pp. 438-458.]

    [Footnote 8: Children’s Interest in Words. Pedagogical Seminary,
    September, 1902, vol. 9, pp. 274-295.]

    [Footnote 9: Children’s Interests in Words, Slang, Stories, etc.
    Pedagogical Seminary, October, 1903, vol. 10, pp. 359-404.]

    [Footnote 10: American Journal of Psychology, April, 1900, vol. 11, p. 345 et seq.]

    [Footnote 11: American Journal of Psychology, January, 1895, vol. 6, pp. 585-592. See also vol. 10, p. 517 et seq.]

    [Footnote 12: North American Review, November, 1885, vol. 141, pp. 431-435.]

    [Footnote 13: Introduction to the Biglow Papers, series ii.]

    [Footnote 14: Some Observations on Children’s Reading. Proceedings of the National Educational Association, 1897, pp. 1015-102l.]

    [Footnote 15: Report on Child Reading. New York Report of State
    Superintendent, 1897, vol. 2, p. 979.]

    [Footnote 16: Children’s reading. North-Western Monthly, December, 1898, vol. 9, pp. 188-191, and January, 1899, vol. 9, pp. 229-233.]

    [Footnote 17: A study of Children’s Reading Tastes. Pedagogical
    Seminary, December, 1899, vol. 6, pp. 523-535.]

    [Footnote 18: Perhaps the best and most notable school reader is Das Deutsche Lesebuch, begun nearly fifty years ago by Hopf and Paulsiek, and lately supplemented by a corps of writers headed by Döbeln, all in ten volumes of over 3,500 pages and containing nearly six times as much matter as the largest American series. Many men for years went over the history of German literature, from the Eddas and Nibelungenlied down, including a few living writers, carefully selecting saga, legends, Märchen, fables, proverbs, hymns, a few prayers, Bible tales, conundrums, jests, and humorous tales, with many digests, epitomes and condensation of great standards, quotations, epic, lyric, dramatic poetry, adventure, exploration, biography, with sketches of the life of each writer quoted, with a large final volume on the history of German literature. All this, it is explained, is “stataric” or required to be read between Octava[A] and Obersecunda. It is no aimless anthology or chrestomathy like Chambers’s Encyclopedia, but it is perhaps the best product of prolonged concerted study to select from a vast field the best to feed each nascent stage of later childhood and early youth, and to secure the maximum of pleasure and profit. The ethical end is dominant throughout this pedagogic canon.]

    [Footnote A: The Prussian gymnasium, whose course is classical and fits for the University, has nine classes in three divisions of three classes each. The lower classes are Octava, Septa, Sexta, Quinta, and Quarta; the middle classes, Untertertia, Obertertia, and Untersecunda; the higher classes, Obersecunda, Unterprima, and Oberprima. Pupils must be at least nine years of age and have done three years preparatory work before entrance.]

    [Footnote 19: The Historic Sense among Children. In her Studies in
    Historical Method. D. C. Heath and Co., Boston, 1896, p. 57.]

    [Footnote 20: Special Study on Children’s Sense of Historical Time.
    Mrs. Barnes’s Studies in Historical Method, D.C. Heath and Co.,
    Boston, 1896, p. 94.]

    [Footnote 21: L’Etude expérimentale de l’intelligence. Schleicher
    Frères, Paris, 1903.]

    [Footnote 22: The Growth of Memory in School Children. American
    Journal of Psychology, April, 1892, vol. 9, pp. 362-380.]

    [Footnote 23: Contribution to the Psychology and Pedagogy of
    Feeble-minded Children. By G.E. Johnson. Pedagogical Seminary,
    October, 1895, vol. 3, p. 270.]

    [Footnote 24: A Test of Memory in School Children. Pedagogical
    Seminary, October, 1898, vol. 4, pp. 61-78.]

    [Footnote 25: Zeitschrift für pädagogische Psychologie, Pathologie und
    Hygiene. February, 1900. Jahrgang II, Heft 1, pp. 21-30.]

    [Footnote 26: See Scripture: Scientific Child Study. Transactions of the Illinois Society for Child Study, May, 1895, vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 32-37.]

    [Footnote 27: Experimentelle Untersuchungen über die
    Gedächtnissentwickelung bei Schulkindern. Zeits. f. Psychologie, u.
    Physiologie der Sinnes-organe, November, 1900. Bd. 24. Heft 5, pp.
    321-351.]

    [Footnote 28: See Note 4, p. 270.]

    [Footnote 29: Memory: An Inductive Study. By F.W. Colegrove. Henry
    Holt and Co., New York, 1900, p. 229. See also Individual Memories.
    American Journal of Psychology, January, 1899, vol. 10, pp 228-255.]

    Extract from Youth: Its Education, Regimen, and Hygiene, by G. Stanley Hall

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  • Assuaging Plight Of The Poor In This Perilous Time By Okechukwu Nwanguma

    Assuaging Plight Of The Poor In This Perilous Time By Okechukwu Nwanguma

    Assuaging Plight Of The Poor In This Perilous Time By Okechukwu Nwanguma 4

    Assuaging Plight Of The Poor In This Perilous Time By Okechukwu Nwanguma 5


    Rule of Law and Accountability Advocacy Centre has been monitoring and receiving information on public compliance with the Federal Government ordered lockdown in Abuja, Lagos and Ogun states, which contain measures to contain the ravaging Covid-19 pandemic.

    Our monitoring of the compliance with the lockdown and stay-at-home orders in Lagos, Abuja and few other states indicate that most people are finding it difficult to effectively comply for various reasons. 

    First, there are those, who still don’t believe that Covid-19 is a real life-threatening pandemic and that precautionary measures such as social distancing, personal hygiene and other outlined measures can prevent its infection and spread. 

    In fact some have been made to believe that the lockdown is a deception by government to achieve other ulterior motives. Those, who promote this narrative are mainly the apocalyptic Pentecostal ‘Men of God’, who push arguments linking Covid-19 to 5G mobile technology, which they argue is a part of the biblically ordained designs of the Anti-Christ.

    Second, some Nigerians are simply lawless or lack discipline, just like when passengers are asked to switch off their phones prior to flight take off and you still find some people, seemingly ladies and gentlemen, fiddling with their phones.

    To illustrate, a relative of mine called me yesterday to complain that he was arrested by the police somewhere in Lagos when he drove out to buy pap for his baby. I asked him whether he knew about the lockdown order and whether there was nowhere around his neighbourhood he could walk down to buy the pap. He said ‘but other vehicles are on the road’. I told him that he had broken the law as much as those other people. Everybody may not be arrested at once.

    He wanted me to talk to the police officers, who arrested him and ordered him to drive to their station. I asked him what he wanted me to tell them.

    Third, and most significantly, there are yet others, who are forced out of their homes by want and hunger. They can’t stand the site of their tender children crying for hunger.

    As I said elsewhere, majority of the population fall within the poor and vulnerable category. Usually, many feed themselves and their dependents on their daily earnings. They live from hand to mouth.

    Under the prevailing difficult and uncertain situation, many families and individuals are already suffering and starving, just one week into the lockdown, with one more week left to go, with the probability of an extension.

    The Federal Government’s Social Intervention Policy, the so-called conditional cash transfer is not yet addressing mass poverty, deprivation and hunger. The billions, which government announced that it has released and made available for conditional cash transfer to the poor and vulnerable in communities are not reaching the targets. There are still cries of woe and anguish in most communities.

    We have seen videos of caricature of the ‘social intervention’, of food items shared to some communities. In one video, we saw a street in Lagos of over 30 families, who said they were given two loaves of bread and few cups of rice and garri and few condiments (tomato paste sachets) to share. And we see members of the community lamenting and asking how a whole street of over 30 families could be given such quantity of food items not enough to serve one family for two days to share!

    Corruption has become our national culture. A seemingly intractable challenge to our progress and development. Most of our politicians and public office holders are unscrupulously avaricious.

    Given our past experiences where public funds meant for and released to assuage the sufferings of poor and vulnerable communities were  either unconscionably used to ‘cut grasses’ or inexplicably got ‘swallowed by snakes’, we call for transparent and community-based approaches to the management and disbursement of social intervention funds.

    Considering complaints by many local communities about not benefiting from the released billions of naira announced and meant to alleviate poverty and hardship, especially during this difficult and uncertain period, we call for a transparent and effective investigation of the management of the funds so far allocated. Efforts must be put in place to ensure that the funds are not diverted as usual.

    Independent community committees must receive these funds and be charged with identifying those in their midst, who qualify to benefit.

    The management of the funds should be monitored by a multi-stakeholder committee including government and community representatives as well as credible media and civil society representatives.

    Government must put effective measures in place to check corrupt public officials, who want to steal or divert funds meant to relieve the sufferings of the poor and vulnerable people in this perilous times.

    This is the only way to help the people comply with the law and stay at home for now!

    Finally, since government has been announcing huge numbers of beneficiaries of cash transfer program running into millions and claiming to have paid billions, can the government make the system transparent by publishing the names and addresses of the beneficiaries on an electronic portal so that Nigerians can do the verification?

    Okechukwu Nwanguma is the Executive Director of Rule of Law and Accountability Advocacy Centre

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  • UK PM listened to his scientists about Covid-19, but they were slow to sound the alarm

    UK PM listened to his scientists about Covid-19, but they were slow to sound the alarm

    UK PM listened to his scientists about Covid-19, but they were slow to sound the alarm 6

    LONDON: It was early spring when British scientists laid out the bald truth to their government. It was “highly likely,“ they said, that there was now “sustained transmission” of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom.

    If unconstrained and if the virus behaved as in China, up to four-fifths of Britons could be infected and one in a hundred might die, wrote the scientists, members of an official committee set up to model the spread of pandemic flu, on March 2. Their assessment didn’t spell it out, but that was a prediction of over 500,000 deaths in this nation of nearly 70 million.

    Yet the next day, March 3, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was his cheery self. He joked that he was still shaking hands with everyone, including at a hospital treating coronavirus patients.

    “Our country remains extremely well prepared,“ Johnson said as Italy reached 79 deaths. “We already have a fantastic NHS,“ the national public health service, “fantastic testing systems and fantastic surveillance of the spread of disease.”

    Alongside him at the Downing Street press conference was Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser and himself an epidemiologist. Whitty passed on the modelling committee’s broad conclusions, including the prediction of a possible 80% infection rate and the consequent deaths. But he played them down, saying the number of people who would be infected was probably “a lot lower” and coming up with a total was “largely speculative.”

    The upbeat tone of that briefing stood in sharp contrast with the growing unease of many of the government’s scientific advisers behind the scenes. They were already convinced that Britain was on the brink of a disastrous outbreak, a Reuters investigation has found.

    Interviews with more than 20 British scientists, key officials and senior sources in Johnson’s Conservative Party, and a study of minutes of advisory committee meetings and public testimony and documents, show how these scientific advisers concluded early the virus could be devastating.

    But the interviews and documents also reveal that for more than two months, the scientists whose advice guided Downing Street did not clearly signal their worsening fears to the public or the government. Until March 12, the risk level, set by the government’s top medical advisers on the recommendation of the scientists, remained at “moderate,“ suggesting only the possibility of a wider outbreak.

    “You know, there’s a small little cadre of people in the middle, who absolutely did realise what was going on, and likely to happen,“ said John Edmunds, a professor of infectious disease modelling and a key adviser to the government, known for his work on tracking Ebola. Edmunds was among those who did call on the government to elevate the warning level earlier.

    From the outset, said Edmunds, work by scientists had shown that, with only limited interventions, the virus would trigger an “overwhelming epidemic” in which Britain’s health service was not going “to get anywhere near being able to cope with it. That was clear from the beginning.”

    But he said: “I do think there’s a bit of a worry in terms you don’t want to unnecessarily panic people.”

    Johnson, who himself has sickened with the virus, moved more slowly than the leaders of many other prosperous countries to adopt a lockdown. He has been criticised for not moving more swiftly to organise mass tests and mobilise supplies of life-saving equipment and beds. Johnson was hospitalized on April 5 and moved to intensive care the next day.

    It is too soon to judge the ultimate soundness of the UK’s early response. If history concludes that it was lacking, then the criticism levelled at the prime minister may be that, rather than ignoring the advice of his scientific advisers, he failed to question their assumptions.

    Interviews and records published so far suggest that the scientific committees that advised Johnson didn’t study, until mid-March, the option of the kind of stringent lockdown adopted early on in China, where the disease arose in December, and then followed by much of Europe and finally by Britain itself. The scientists’ reasoning: Britons, many of them assumed, simply wouldn’t accept such restrictions.

    The UK scientists were also mostly convinced – and many still are – that, once the new virus escaped China, quarantine measures would likely not succeed. Minutes of technical committees reviewed by Reuters indicate that almost no attention was paid to preparing a programme of mass testing. Other minutes and interviews show Britain was following closely a well-laid plan to fight a flu pandemic – not this deadlier disease. The scientists involved, however, deny that the flu focus ultimately made much difference.

    Now, as countries debate how to combat the virus, some experts here say, the lesson from the British experience may be that governments and scientists worldwide must increase the transparency of their planning so that their thinking and assumptions are open to challenge.

    John Ashton, a clinician and former regional director of Public Health England, the government agency overseeing healthcare, said the government’s advisers took too narrow a view and hewed to limited assumptions. They were too “narrowly drawn as scientists from a few institutions,“ he said. Their handling of COVID-19, Ashton said, shows the need for a broader approach. “In the future we need a much wider group of independent advisers.”

    Michael Cates, who succeeded Stephen Hawking as Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at Cambridge University, is leading an initiative by the Royal Society, the UK’s leading scientific body, to bring modellers in from other scientific disciplines to help understand the epidemic.

    “Without faulting anyone so far, it’s vital, where there is such a lot at stake, to throw the maximum possible light on the methods, assumptions and data built into our understanding of how this epidemic will develop,“ he told Reuters.

    In a statement to Reuters, a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care said the government was delivering “a science-led action plan” to contain the outbreak. “As the public would expect, we regularly test our pandemic plans and what we learned from previous exercises has helped us to rapidly respond to COVID-19.”

    A LOW RISK TO THE PUBLIC

    When news came from China in January of a new infectious disease, Johnson had reason to believe his country was well prepared. It had some of the world’s best scientists and a well-drilled plan to deal with potentially lethal pandemics. Perhaps, some scientists say in hindsight, the plan made them slow to adapt.

    For many years, the Cabinet Office – a collection of officials who act as the prime minister’s direct arm to run the government – took the threat of pandemics seriously. Presciently, it rated pandemics as the Number 1 threat to the country, ahead of terrorism and financial crashes.

    At the centre of planning was a small group of scientists, among them Edmunds. His research group at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine runs one of the two computer modelling centres for epidemics that have mostly driven government policy. The other is at nearby Imperial College. Edmunds remembers that early in the outbreak, the data from China were sketchy, in the period “where the Chinese were trying to pretend that this wasn’t transmissible between humans.”

    Edmunds and his colleague at Imperial, Neil Ferguson, were part of an alphabet soup of committees that fed advice into the Cabinet Office machinery around the prime minister. Both were founders of the flu pandemic modelling committee, known as SPI-M, that produced the March 2 report warning of more than 500,000 deaths. This committee had met together for nearly 15 years.

    Ferguson did not respond to a request to be interviewed for this article.

    Edmunds and Ferguson were also part of NERVTAG, the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group. Both too were members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, known as SAGE, that advises the government in times of crisis. SAGE reports directly to Johnson and the government’s main emergency committee, COBRA.

    At first, when NERVTAG met on January 13, it studied information from China that there was “no evidence of significant human to human transmission” of the new virus, according to minutes of the meeting. The scientists agreed the risk to the UK population was “very low.”

    The evidence soon changed, but this wasn’t reflected in the official threat level. By the end of January, scientists in China began releasing clinical data. Case studies published in the British medical journal, The Lancet, showed 17% of the first 99 coronavirus cases needed critical care. Eleven patients died. Another Chinese study, in the same magazine, warned starkly of a global spread and urged: “Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.”

    Edmunds recalled that “from about mid January onwards, it was absolutely obvious that this was serious, very serious.” Graham Medley, a professor of infectious diseases modelling at the London School and chairman of SPI-M, agreed. He said that the committee was “clear that this was going to be big from the first meeting.” At the end of January, his committee moved into “wartime” mode, he said, reporting directly into SAGE.

    Dr Jon Read, a senior lecturer in biostatistics at the University of Lancaster, also a member of SPI-M, said by the end of January it was apparent the virus had “pandemic potential” and that death rates for the elderly were brutal. “From my perspective within the sort of modelling community, everybody’s aware of this, and we’re saying that this is probably going to be pretty bad,“ he said.

    But the scientists did not articulate their fears forcefully to the government, minutes of committee meetings reveal.

    On January 21, scientists on NERVTAG endorsed the elevation of the UK risk warning from COVID-19 from “very low” to “low.” SAGE met formally for the first time the following day about the coronavirus threat. So did COBRA, which was chaired by Matt Hancock, the health secretary, who would contract the virus himself in late March. He told reporters after the meeting: “The clinical advice is that the risk to the public remains low.”

    In response to questions from Reuters, the government’s Department of Health declined to clarify how the risk levels are defined or what action, if any, they trigger. In a statement, a spokesperson said: “Increasing the risk level in the UK is a belt and braces measure which allows the government to plan for all future eventualities.”

    Two days later, China put the city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began, into a complete lockdown. Hubei, the surrounding province, would follow. But already, 17 passenger flights had flown directly from Wuhan to Britain since the start of 2020, and 614 flights from the whole of China, according to FlightRadar24, a flight-tracking service. That meant thousands of Chinese, some of them potential carriers, had come to Britain. On April 5, scientific adviser Ferguson said he estimated only one-third of infected people reaching Britain had been detected.

    As they watched China impose its lockdown, the British scientists assumed that such drastic actions would never be acceptable in a democracy like the UK. Among those modelling the outbreak, such stringent counter-measures were not, at first, examined.

    “We had milder interventions in place,“ said Edmunds, because no one thought it would be acceptable politically “to shut the country down.” He added: “We didn’t model it because it didn’t seem to be on the agenda. And Imperial (College) didn’t look at it either.” The NERVTAG committee agreed, noting in its minutes that tough measures in the short term would be pointless, as they “would only delay the UK outbreak, not prevent it.”

    That limited approach mirrored the UK’s longstanding pandemic flu strategy. The Department of Health declined a request from Reuters for a copy of its updated pandemic plan, without providing a reason. But a copy of the 2011 “UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011,“ which a spokesman said was still relevant, stated the “working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness.”

    According to one senior Conservative Party politician, who was officially briefed as the crisis unfolded, the close involvement in the response to the coronavirus of the same scientific advisers and civil servants who drew up the flu plan may have created a “cognitive bias.”

    “We had in our minds that COVID-19 was a nasty flu and needed to be treated as such,“ he said. “The implication was it was a disease that could not be stopped and that it was ultimately not that deadly.”

    While the UK was prepared to fight the flu, places in Asia like China, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea had built their pandemic plans with lessons learned from fighting the more lethal SARS outbreak that began in 2002, he said. SARS had a fatality rate of up to 14%. As a result, these countries, he said, were more ready to resort to widespread testing, lockdowns and other draconian measures to keep their citizens from spreading the virus.

    Scientists involved in the UK response disagree that following the government’s flu plan clouded their thinking or influenced the outbreak’s course. The plan had a “reasonable worst case” scenario as devastating as the worst predictions for COVID-19, they note.

    Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious diseases epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, and a member of the SPI-M committee, said COVID-19 did behave differently than an expected pandemic flu – for example school closures proved to be far less effective in slowing the spread of the coronavirus. But, broadly, “the government has been consistently responsive to changing facts.”

    By the end of January, the government’s chief medical adviser, Whitty, was explaining to politicians in private, according to at least two people who spoke to him, that if the virus escaped China, it would in time infect the great majority of people in Britain. It could only be slowed down, not stopped. On Jan 30, the government raised the threat level to “moderate” from “low.”

    The country’s medical officers “consider it prudent for our governments to escalate planning and preparation in case of a more widespread outbreak,“ a statement said at the time. Whitty did not respond to questions from Reuters for this article.

    A TIME TO PREPARE

    On the evening of January 31, Boris Johnson sat before a fireplace in 10 Downing Street and told the nation, in a televised address: “This is the moment when the dawn breaks and the curtain goes up on a new act in our great national drama.”

    He was talking of finally delivering Brexit, or what he called “this recaptured sovereignty.” Until that moment, Johnson’s premiership had been utterly absorbed by delivering on that challenge.

    With Brexit done, Johnson had the chance to focus on other matters the following month, among them the emerging virus threat. But leaving the European Union had a consequence.

    Between February 13 and March 30, Britain missed a total of eight conference calls or meetings about the coronavirus between EU heads of state or health ministers – meetings that Britain was still entitled to join. Although Britain did later make an arrangement to attend lower-level meetings of officials, it had missed a deadline to participate in a common purchase scheme for ventilators, to which it was invited. Ventilators, vitally important to treating the direst cases of COVID-19, have fallen into short supply globally. Johnson’s spokesman blamed an administrative error.

    A Downing Street aide told Reuters that from around the end of January, Johnson concentrated his attention increasingly on the coronavirus threat, receiving “very frequent” updates at least once per day from mid February, either in person or via a daily dashboard of cases.

    In the medical and scientific world, there was growing concern about the threat of the virus to the UK. A report from Exeter University, published on February 12, warned a UK outbreak could peak within four months and, without mitigation, infect 45 million people.

    That worried Rahuldeb Sarkar, a consultant physician in respiratory medicine and critical care in the county of Kent, who foresaw that intensive care beds could be swamped. Even if disease transmission was reduced by half, he wrote in a report aimed at clinicians and actuaries in mid-February, a coronavirus outbreak in the UK would “have a chance of overwhelming the system.”

    With Whitty stating in a BBC interview on February 13 that a UK outbreak was still an “if, not a when,“ Richard Horton, a medical doctor and editor of the Lancet, said the government and public health service wasted an opportunity that month to prepare quarantine restriction measures and a programme of mass tests, and procure resources like ventilators and personal protective equipment for expanded intensive care.

    Calling the lost chance a “national scandal” in a later editorial, he would testify to parliament about a mismatch between “the urgent warning that was coming from the frontline in China” and the “somewhat pedestrian evaluation” of the threat from the scientific advice to the government.

    After developing a test for the new virus by January 10, health officials adopted a centralised approach to its deployment, initially assigning a single public laboratory in north London to perform the tests. But, according to later government statements, there was no wider plan envisaged to make use of hundreds of laboratories across the country, both public and private, that could have been recruited.

    According to emails and more than a dozen scientists interviewed by Reuters, the government issued no requests to labs for assistance with staff or testing equipment until the middle of March, when many abruptly received requests to hand over nucleic acid extraction instruments, used in testing. An executive at the Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine at the University of Oxford said he could have carried out up to 1,000 tests per day from February. But the call never came.

    “You would have thought that they would be bashing down the door,“ said the executive, who spoke on condition of anonymity. By April 5, Britain had carried out 195,524 tests, in contrast to at least 918,000 completed a week earlier in Germany.

    Nor was there an effective effort to expand the supply of ventilators. The Department of Health told Reuters in a statement that the government started talking to manufacturers of ventilators about procuring extra supplies in February. But it was not until March 16, after it was clear supplies could run out, that Johnson launched an appeal to industry to help ramp up production.

    Charles Bellm, managing director of Intersurgical, a global supplier of medical ventilation products based outside London, said he has been contacted by more than a dozen governments around the world, including France, New Zealand and Indonesia. But there had been no contact from the British government. “I find it somewhat surprising, I have spoken to a lot of other governments,“ he said.

    Countering such criticism, Hancock, the health minister, said the government is on track to deliver about 10,000 more ventilators in the coming weeks. One reason Britain was behind some countries on testing, he said, was the absence of a large diagnostics industry at the outbreak of the epidemic. “We didn’t have the scale.”

    GAME OVER

    It was during the school half-term holidays in February that frontline doctor Nicky Longley began to realise that early efforts to contain the disease were likely doomed.

    For weeks now, doctors and public health workers had been watching out for people with flu-like symptoms coming in from China. Longley, an infectious diseases consultant at London’s Hospital for Tropical Diseases, was part of a team that staffed a public health service helpline for those with symptoms. The plan, she said, had been to make all effort to catch every case and their contacts. And “to start with, it looked like it was working.”

    But then, bad news. First, on Wednesday the 19th of February, came the shock news from Iran of two deaths. Then, on Friday the 21st, came a death in Italy and a bloom of cases in Lombardy and Veneto regions. Britain has close links to both countries. Thousands of Britons were holidaying in Italy that week.

    “I don’t think anybody really foresaw what was happening in Italy,“ Longley said. “And I think, the minute everybody saw that, we thought: ‘This is game over now.’”

    Until then, Longley said, everyone felt “there was a chance to stamp it out” even though most were sceptical it could be done long-term. But after Iran and Italy, it was obvious containment would not work. The contact tracing continued for a while. But as the cases in London built up, and the volume of calls to the helpline mushroomed, the priority began to shift to clinical care of the serious cases. “At a certain point you have to make a decision about where you put your efforts as a workforce.”

    Edmunds noted that Iran and Italy had hardly reported a case until that point. “And then, all of sudden you had deaths recorded.” There was a rule of thumb that, in an outbreak’s early stages, for each death there were probably 1,000 cases in a community. “And so it was quite clear that there were at least thousands of cases in Italy, possibly tens of thousands of cases in Italy right then.”

    Amid the dreadful news from Italy, the scientists at NERVTAG convened by phone that Friday, 21st February. But they decided to recommend keeping the threat level at “moderate,“ where it had sat since January 30th. The minutes don’t give a detailed explanation of the decision. Edmunds, who had technical difficulties and couldn’t be heard on the call, emailed afterwards to ask the warning to be elevated to “high,“ the minutes revealed. But the warning level remained lower. It’s unclear why.

    “I just thought, are we still, we still thinking that it’s mild or something? It definitely isn’t, you know,“ said Edmunds.

    A spokesman for the government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, didn’t directly respond to Reuters questions about the threat level. Asked whether, with hindsight, the scientists’ approach was the right one, the spokesperson said in a statement that “SAGE and advisers provide advice, while Ministers and the Government make decisions.”

    HERD IMMUNITY

    On Sunday, March 1st, Ferguson, Edmunds and other advisers spent the day with NHS public health service experts trying to work out how many hospital beds and other key resources would be needed as the outbreak exploded. By now, Italian data was showing that a tenth of all infected patients needed intensive care.

    The following day, pandemic modelling committee SPI-M produced its “consensus report” that warned the coronavirus was now transmitting freely in the UK. That Thursday, March 5, the first death in the UK was announced. Italy, which reached 827 deaths by March 11, ordered a national lockdown. Spain and France prepared to follow suit.

    Johnson held out against stringent measures, saying he was following the advice of the government’s scientists. He asserted on March 9: “We are doing everything we can to combat this outbreak, based on the very latest scientific and medical advice.”

    Indeed, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, SAGE, had recommended that day, with no dissension recorded in its summary, that the UK reject a China-style lockdown. SAGE decided that “implementing a subset of measures would be ideal,“ according to a record of its conclusions. Tougher measures could create a “large second epidemic wave once the measures were lifted,“ SAGE said.

    On March 12 came a bombshell for the British public. Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, announced Britain had moved the threat to UK citizens from “moderate” to “high.” And he said the country had moved from trying to contain the disease to trying to slow its spread. New cases were not going to be tracked at all. “It is no longer necessary for us to identify every case,“ he said. Only hospital cases would, in future, be tested for the virus. What had been an undisclosed policy was in the open: beyond a certain point, attempts to completely extinguish the virus would stop.

    The same day, putting aside his jokey self, Johnson made a speech in Downing Street, flanked by two Union Jacks and evoking the spirit of Winston Churchill’s “darkest hour” address. He warned: “I must level with you, level with the British public – more families, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.”

    For most Britons, it came as a shock. Several of the next day’s newspapers splashed Johnson’s words on their front pages.

    Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, who chaired SAGE, said in a BBC interview on March 13 that the plan was to simply control the pace of infection. The government had, for now, rejected what he called “eye-catching measures” like stopping mass gatherings such as football games or closing schools. The “aim is to try and reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not to suppress it completely.” Most people would get the virus mildly, and this would build up “herd immunity” which, in time, would stop the disease’s progress.

    But by now, the country was rebelling. Major institutions decided to close. After players began to get infected, the professional football leagues suspended their games. As Johnson still refused to close schools and ban mass gatherings, the Daily Mirror’s banner headline, summing up a widespread feeling, asked on March 13: “Is It Enough?”

    The catalyst for a policy reversal came on March 16 with the publication of a report by Neil Ferguson’s Imperial College team. It predicted that, unconstrained, the virus could kill 510,000 people. Even the government’s “mitigation” approach could lead to 250,000 deaths and intensive care units being overwhelmed at least eight times over.

    Imperial’s prediction of over half a million deaths was no different from the report by the government’s own pandemic modelling committee two weeks earlier. Yet it helped trigger a policy turn-around, both in London and in Washington, culminating seven days later in Johnson announcing a full lockdown of Britain. The report also jarred the U.S. administration into tougher measures to slow the virus’ spread.

    Ferguson was now in isolation himself after catching the virus. Testifying by video link to a committee in Parliament, he explained why he and other scientific advisers had shifted from advocating partial social-distancing measures to warning that without a rigorous shutdown, the NHS would be overwhelmed. The reason, he said, lay in data coming out of Italy that showed large numbers of patients required critical care.

    “The revision was that, basically, estimates of the proportion of patients requiring invasive ventilation, mechanical ventilation, which is only done in a critical care unit, roughly doubled,“ he said.

    Edmunds had a different explanation for the policy shift.

    What allowed Britain to alter course, said Edmunds, was a lockdown in Italy that “opened up the policy space” coupled with new data. First came a paper by Edmunds’ own London School team that examined intermittent lockdowns, sent to the modelling committee on March 11 and validated by Edinburgh University. Ferguson’s revised Imperial research followed.

    Woolhouse, the Edinburgh professor, confirmed the sequence.

    Edmunds said these new studies together had demonstrated that if the British government imposed a lengthy period of tougher measures, perhaps relaxed periodically, then the size of the epidemic could be substantially reduced.

    Still, without a vaccine or effective treatments, it’s going to be hard to avoid a substantial part of the British population getting infected, said Edmunds. “Until you get to a vaccine, there is no way of getting out of this without certainly tens of thousands of deaths,“ he said. “And probably more than that.”

    Now subject to intense public scrutiny, the modelling teams at universities across Britain continue to work on different scenarios for how the world can escape the virus’s clutches. According to Medley, the chairman of the SPI-M pandemic modelling committee, no one now doubts, for all the initial reservations, that a lockdown was essential in Britain.

    Medley added: “At the moment we don’t know what’s going to happen in six months. All we know is that unless we stop transmission now, the health service will collapse. Yep, that’s the only thing we know for sure.” – Reuters

    UK PM listened to his scientists about Covid-19, but they were slow to sound the alarm
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  • Estimates of the predicted coronavirus death toll have little meaning

    Estimates of the predicted coronavirus death toll have little meaning

    With all the unknowns about covid-19, any numbers you hear about death tolls or how long restrictions will last should be taken not just with a pinch of salt but with a sack of it
    Estimates of the predicted coronavirus death toll have little meaning
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  • Why African Americans are dying at higher rates from Covid-19

    Why African Americans are dying at higher rates from Covid-19

    Why African Americans are dying at higher rates from Covid-19 7

    WASHINGTON: The new coronavirus isn’t biased about who it infects – so why does data emerging from some states suggest that African Americans are bearing the brunt of the pandemic in the US?

    Experts say blacks are disproportionately impacted by underlying health conditions linked to poverty, face discrimination in medical care, and are more likely to work jobs that require them to leave their home.

    “We know that blacks are more likely to have diabetes, heart disease, lung disease,“ the nation’s top doctor, Surgeon General Jerome Adams told CBS News on Tuesday.

    These chronic illnesses, which are in turn linked to poverty and structural racism, can lead to more serious forms of the COVID-19 disease.

    Adams, who is himself black and has high blood pressure and asthma, added: “I represent that legacy of growing up poor and black in America.

    “And I, and many black Americans, are at higher risk for COVID.”

    – Emerging trend –

    There is no nationwide data available on COVID-19 cases by race, but a pattern of over-representation by black Americans has emerged in states or jurisdictions that are sharing the numbers.

    Sixty-eight percent of coronavirus deaths in Chicago have been among African Americans, who make up just 30 percent of the city’s population.

    “Those numbers take your breath away,“ the city’s mayor Lori Lightfoot said Monday at a coronavirus briefing. “This is a call to action for all of us.”

    The trend is repeated in North Carolina, Louisiana, Michigan, Wisconsin and the capital Washington.

    Doctor Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, told AFP the issue was also linked to social class, with black people more likely to work jobs deemed essential that expose them to potential infection.

    “That population is more public facing,“ he said. “More bus drivers, more people taking public transportation to work, more people providing services in nursing homes, more folks working in grocery stores.”

    – Structural bias –

    The problem is compounded by implicit and explicit bias that African Americans face in the medical system.

    Doctor James Hildreth, president of the historically black Meharry Medical College in Nashville, Tennessee told AFP that in his city, most of the initial testing took place at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

    Most of the patients who go to hospital systems like these have insurance, and it was only recently that three assessment centers run by the city of Nashville were built for the underprivileged and minority communities — one of them located at Meharry’s campus and run by its staff.

    “My point is, depending on which community you live in, and whether or not you have insurance… the chances for getting assessed are much less,“ he said.

    What’s more, it’s well documented that when black people seek care, they are less likely to have their symptoms believed or get adequately treated, Doctor Ebony Hilton, an anesthesiologist at the University of Virginia Medical Center told AFP.

    For example, black women are less likely to have their breast cancer mammograms seen by a specialist as opposed to a general radiologist, according to a 2015 Duke University study.

    Black heart patients who present with elevated levels of a group of proteins indicating cardiac injury are also less likely to be seen by specialists, per a 2018 study.

    A civil rights group wrote this week to the US health secretary, Alex Azar, calling on him to “release daily racial and ethnic demographic data related to COVID-19 testing, disease burden and patient outcomes.”

    This, said the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, was necessary to ensure a robust public health response, and to make certain care and testing aren’t being administered in a discriminatory manner.

    The group said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was already collecting the information but deliberately withholding it.

    Hilton stressed that it was in the interests of Americans as a whole to address the problem, because — unlike high rates of heart disease or cancer — a wave of coronavirus spreading through the black and Hispanic population will ultimately impact everyone else.

    “When you have a system that’s not treating these people of lower social economic status and these minority groups, they are then not being tested, they’re sent back home to infect their community,“ she said.

    “Those workers who are now infected are going to the grocery store, and when the upper echelon of America are going to get their food, they will get infected too.” – AFP

    Why African Americans are dying at higher rates from Covid-19
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  • Virtual Press Conference on COVID-19- 06 April 2020

    Virtual Press Conference on COVID-19- 06 April 2020

    Originally broadcast live on 06 April 2020, the daily press briefing on coronavirus COVID-19, direct from WHO Headquarters, Geneva Switzerland with Dr Tedros WHO Director-General, Dr Micheal Ryan, Executive Director of the Health Emergencies Programme, and Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, Technical lead, WHO Health Emergencies Programme with special guests Lady Gaga and Hugh Evans, CEO and Co-founder of Global Citizen.

    Transcript:

    Speaker key:

    TJ        Tarik Jasarevic

    TAG    Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

    LG       Lady Gaga

    HE       Hugh Evans

    MR      Dr Michael Ryan JA  Jamie

    MK      Dr Maria Van Kerkhove KA Kai

    KT       Kate

    IN        Innocent

    YA      Yang

    00:00:19

     

    TJ        Good evening to everyone from Geneva and WHO headquarters. Welcome to the regular press conference on COVID-19. Journalists who are online can ask their questions by clicking  raise hand if  you are
    on Zoom.  Today we have a special guest but  I will  let Dr Tedros do his opening remarks and introduce them.  Before I give  the floor  to Dr Tedros, just to remind you, we will also be sending you some news from other
    WHO offices around the world with the audio file  from this  press briefing a little  bit  later. I give  the floor  immediately to Dr Tedros.

     

    00:01:07

     

    TAG    Good morning, good  afternoon and good  evening.  The COVID-19 pandemic continues to take a heavy toll on families, communities and nations the world over but it’s also giving rise to incredible acts of generosity,
    solidarity and co-operation. We have said consistently that we’re all in this together and we can only succeed together. We need an all- of-society approach with everyone playing their part. That includes  people  in  the entertainment
    industry.

     

    Today I’m very delighted to be joined by one of the biggest names in entertainment in the world, Lady Gaga, and my friend Hugh Evans, the founder and CEO of Global Citizen.

    WHO has been working with Global Citizen for several weeks on the Together At Home concert series with artists like Chris Martin and John Legend giving free online performances.

    Now we’re working with Lady Gaga and Global Citizen to take this concept and make it even bigger through the  One World  Together  At Home virtual  global  special on Saturday 18th April. It’s now my great pleasure to invite
    Lady Gaga and Hugh Evans to say more about this very special event, One World.

    00:03:10

     

    LG       Thank you very much, Dr Tedros. Good morning, good afternoon  and good  evening to everyone who’s listening and watching. I would  like  to thank the World  Health Organization and the
    United Nations as well as Global Citizen; thank you very much, Dr Tedros and Hugh Evans, for all of your leadership in this fight against COVID-19 and thank you very much to the World Health Organization  for asking  me to collaborate 
    with  you on this special.

    We are also very grateful to all of the healthcare professionals across the country and around the world who are on the front lines during COVID-19. This  global  pandemic  is  a catastrophe. I’m so thankful to them and I’m also
    praying for those who are sick. It’s been a pleasure to partner with Global Citizen  and we’ve been working  all together  behind  the scenes to raise money for the World Health Organization.

    I would also like to send my prayers as well to people  that are losing  their  jobs  and are having a hard time feeding themselves  and their  children.  We are raising  money  for  the World Health
    Organization’s COVID-19 Solidarity  Response  Fund and seven days ago we held a  call with more than 68 corporate leaders from some of the world’s biggest and most generous companies and I asked them to join my corporate kindness
    list as there have been many corporations and philanthropists that have been very, very generous during this time.

    00:04:38

     

    Since then we have also been calling on philanthropists around the world as well and tech companies included. I’d like  to reiterate our deep gratitude  to the medical  community.  My heart is very, very aching and warm for those
    who are ER doctors as well as nurses who are sleeping in cars to make sure they don’t infect their families  or  their  patients.  What you’re doing is putting  yourselves  in  harm’s way to help the world 
    and we all salute  you and you are a triumph truly.

    I am proud to say that over the past seven days we’ve raised a total of $35 million for the Solidarity Fund. This money will [inaudible]  essential PPE, supplies  and testing kits around  the world and will help improve lab capacity
    to rapidly process tests. It will also [inaudible] research development. It is so important to think globally and to support the World Health Organization to curb the pandemic and prevent future outbreaks.

    I know Dr Tedros is particularly concerned about Africa and [inaudible]. We also need to act globally by supporting local charities  and initiatives so that the front-line health  workers in most immediate need have the resources they need
    to survive during this time. It has been an honour to help with this huge broadcast event, which will take place on April 18th, where we need to tell the stories of and celebrate the front-line community, healthcare workers and their acts of kindness.

    We will be on different networks, many networks actually and I want to [inaudible] about what we’re going to be doing. What’s very important is that two things happen for all of us; that we celebrate and we highlight the singular, kind global community
    that is arising right now. Two, we want to highlight the gravity of this historically unprecedented cultural movement and, three, we want to celebrate and encourage the power of the human spirit.

    00:06:47

    I would like to, on behalf of  the World  Health Organization  and Global  Citizen,  thank Dr Tedros as well as everyone that has donated so far. We are going to continue fundraising but I would like to also let you know that
    this broadcast special is not actually a fundraiser. We all wanted to raise the money before we went on air so when we do  air  live  on  April  18th  put your wallets away, put your credit  cards away, anything 
    away that you need to and just  sit back and enjoy the show that you all very much deserve.

    I’d like to pass this now to Hugh Evans, who’s been a wonderful partner of mine. Hugh, thank you so much and thank you, Dr Tedros.

    HE       Good morning, good afternoon,  good  evening  and thank you,  Dr Tedros  and thank you, Lady Gaga. Your Excellencies,  ladies  and gentlemen;  Lady Gaga, Dr Tedros, 
    you’ve both demonstrated extraordinary leadership at an unprecedented moment when our society is being challenged like never before and we are so thankful for your leadership. I’d like to echo Lady Gaga’s sentiment and commend the incredible acts
    of bravery demonstrated by the front-line community  health  workers around the world  and I hope  that we as a shared humanity emerge from this moment forever grateful for the work of doctors, nurses, teachers, grocery store workers and all of those who are
    the backbone of our communities.

    Global health is at the very core of the global citizen mission and we must  ensure that the world’s poorest and most  marginalised  people  have  access to resources to cope with and tackle this health crisis. Through One
    World:  Together At Home on April 18th  we’ll be calling on philanthropists, corporations and governments to fund critical global COVID-19 response efforts including distribution of resources and PPE to critical front-line healthcare
    workers.

    00:09:09

    In our partnership with the WHO and United Nations Global Citizen is committed to driving action to help ensure our global health systems are strong enough to stop a future pandemic before it happens. April 18th is going to be a moment of global unity
    connecting the world through a historic global broadcast. We are bringing together the greatest artists in the world under the passionate and extremely talented curation of Lady Gaga.

    In alphabetical order some of the artists we’ll be announcing today include Alanis Morissette, Andrea Bocelli,  Billie  Eilish,  Billy  Joe Armstrong  of Green Day, Burna Boy, Chris Martin, Sir David Beckham, Eddie Vedder,
    Sir Elton John, Finneas, Idris and Sabrina Elba, J Balvin, John Legend, Kacey Musgraves, Keith Urban, Kerry Washington,  Lang Lang,  Lizzo, Maluma, Sir Paul McCartney, Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Shah Rukh Khan, Stevie Wonder and many more to be announced over the coming weeks from all corners of the globe under the passionate and extremely talented curation of Lady Gaga.

    We’re grateful to all of you for participating and supporting this critical effort. One World Together At Home will be broadcast live on Saturday April 18th 2020 at 5:00pm PDT, 8:00pm EDT and 12:00am BST, airing on ABC, NBC, Viacom and CBS networks,
    IHeartMedia, and Bell media networks and platforms in Canada. Internationally BBC1 will run the programme on Sunday April 19th and additional  international  broadcasters include BN Media Group, Multi-Choice Group and RTE in Ireland.

    00:11:43

    The digital broadcast will celebrate and support brave community  health workers who are doing life-saving work on the front line and we’ve all seen the limitations of world leaders around this world to step up and face this extraordinary challenge 
    and we want to do our best to support the essential work of the World Health Organization, driving action and raising critical funds. Thank you again, Dr Tedros, and thank you, Lady Gaga, for your leadership.

    Thank you all.

    TJ        Thank you very much to our guests for their remarks. Dr Tedros, I guess you would like to thank them too.

    TAG    Once again I would like  to thank Lady Gaga and Hugh Evans for their  partnership. We had a call last week and I was so amazed by the energy and passion of Lady Gaga. It’s incredible commitment to humanity and that’s
    when I said, I think what she has planned can happen. It’s bringing the world together to improve awareness and to mobilise  resources to fight the pandemic so I thank her for her incredible passion and commitment  and leadership and
    also to my friend, Hugh Evans, for connecting all the dots and for his leadership.

    We all look forward to joining you for the One World: Together  At Home concert on 18th April. As the pandemic continues we recognise that individuals and governments want to do everything they can to protect themselves and others and so do we.
    We understand that some countries have recommended or are considering the use of both medical  and non-medical masks in the general population to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

    00:14:21

    First and foremost medical masks must be prioritised for health workers on the front lines  of  the response. We know medical masks can help to protect health workers but they’re in short supply globally.  We’re concerned that the mass
    use of medical  masks by the general population could exacerbate the shortage of these specialised masks for the people who need them most. In some places these shortages are putting health workers in real danger.

    In healthcare facilities WHO continues to recommend the use of medical masks, respirators and other personal protective equipment for  health workers. In the community we recommend the use of medical masks by people who are sick and those who
    are caring for a sick person at home.

    WHO has been evaluating the use of medical and non-medical masks for COVID-19 more widely. Today WHO is issuing guidance and criteria to support countries in making that decision. For example countries could consider using masks in communities where other measures such as cleaning hands and physical distancing are harder to achieve because of lack of water or cramped living conditions.

    If masks are worn they must be used safely and properly. WHO has guidance on how to put on, take off and dispose of masks. What’s clear is that there is limited research in  this  area. We encourage countries that are considering the use
    of masks for the general population to study their effectiveness so we can all learn. Most importantly masks should only  ever be used as part of a comprehensive package of interventions. There is no black or white answer and no silver bullet.
    Masks alone cannot stop the pandemic. Countries must continue to find, test, isolate and treat every case and trace every contact. Mask or no mask, there are proven things all of us can do to protect ourselves and others.

    00:17:13

    Keep your distance, clean your hands, cough or sneeze into your elbow  and avoid  touching your face. Less than 100 days since WHO was notified about the new coronavirus  research has accelerated at incredible speed. The viral genome
    was mapped  in  early January and shared globally, which enabled tests to be developed and vaccine research to start. More than 70 countries have joined WHO’s Solidarity Trial to accelerate the search for an effective treatment and about
    20 institutions and companies are racing to develop a vaccine.

    WHO is committed to ensuring that as medicines and vaccines are developed they’re shared equitably with all countries  and people.  I want to thank the  Medicines  Patent Pool and Unitaid for the initiative they announced last
    Friday to include medicines and diagnostics for COVID-19 in their licensing pool.

    I also want to thank the President of Costa Rica, President Carlos Alvadaro, and the Health Minister, Daniel Salas, for their proposal to create a pool of rights to tests, medicines and vaccines with free access or licensing on reasonable and affordable
    terms for all countries. Muchas gracias, Mr President. I support this proposal and we’re working with Costa Rica to finalise the details.

    00:19:09

    Poorer countries and fragile  economies  stand to face the biggest  shock from this  pandemic and leaving anyone unprotected will  only  prolong  the health crisis  and harm economies  more.  I call
    on all countries, companies and research institutions to support open data, open science and open collaboration so that all people can enjoy the benefits of science and research.

    Finally we’re nearing the end of the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This is one piece of good news. If there are no more cases the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo could declare the outbreak over  as early
    as this  Sunday.  We’re not  there yet and we remain in full response mode. We’re continuing to investigate alerts and to test samples.

    This would not have been possible without the incredible  health workers who have put themselves at risk for more than 18 months to stop this outbreak, just as health workers are putting themselves in danger to save lives from COVID-19. Health
    workers in DRC faced the 
    double threat of fighting a deadly virus in one of the world’s most dangerous and unstable regions, exposing themselves to Ebola and bullets.

    Tomorrow, as you know, is WHO’s birthday, a day we celebrate each year as World Health Day. This year we’re paying tribute to the incredible contribution of all health workers, especially nurses and midwives. Nurses and midwives are the backbone of
    every health system. They’re there from the first moments of life to the last. Tomorrow we’re publishing our first report on the state of the world’s nursing which highlights gaps and makes recommendations for all countries.

    00:22:00

    One of the lessons I hope the world learns from COVID-19 is that we must invest in health workers, not only to protect lives but also to protect livelihoods. I thank you.

    TJ        Thank you very much, Dr Tedros. Also, as always, we have Dr Mike Ryan and Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, who will be answering questions. We will  now open the floor.  I will  go to one question
    that I received by email this morning and I promised to answer; that’s Ankit Kumar from India Today. Ankit is asking; we have recently seen a spike in  cases caused through religious gatherings in India, in fact almost a third of new cases
    were linked to one gathering in India. We have also seen incidents of violence against health workers due to fear and misinformation. Is WHO concerned with these developments, what is WHO’s message to religious and community leaders and their
    followers?

    MR      First and foremost the idea of violence against health workers is driven by fear and it’s driven by misunderstanding but it’s  really  unacceptable. We ask everyone and every community to see our health workers
    as our heroes and to support them in every way we can.

    With regard to gatherings of any type, be they religious or be they for other  purposes,  there are always risks associated with such gatherings in the midst of a major epidemic. WHO has issued guidance on that. Many of these gatherings
    are now postponed or cancelled.  We’ve been working very, very closely with religious  and faith-based organisations  all  over the world including  groups  from the Islamic  tradition,  Christian 
    traditions  and others and continue to work through faith-based organisations to communicate  using  our  Epiwin platform.

    00:24:21

    We’re also continuing to develop guidance specifically  for the holy  month  of Ramadan and are working through our Eastern Mediterranean regional office to be able to advise governments and religious institutions on how best to manage
    the risks associated with such holy events.

    But it’s very important again; having COVID-19 is not anybody’s fault. Every case is a victim and every case needs to be  treated with sensitivity,  as the health workers who treat them so it’s very important that we’re not profiling COVID-19
    along  racial,  along  religious,  along ethnic lines. This is not helpful.

    TJ        Thank you very much. This was a question  from Ankit  Kumar from India  Today. Now we will go to journalists online. We will start with Jamie from Associated Press. Jamie, can you hear us?

    JA        Hi, yes. Can you hear me? TJ            Yes. Please go ahead.

    JA        Great, thank you very much. I wanted to ask you about… Over the weekend Dr Anthony Fauci mentioned that – if I understood it correctly – as much as 50% of transmission could be asymptomatic. Just aligned 
    with that, if  you could  give  us a little  bit  more  about what you’re thinking about the fact that some countries have said that this outbreak is more infectious than influenza. The CDC is saying that it’s up
    to three times more infectious than influenza so what do you have to say about that? Thanks.

    00:26:13

    MK      I’ll start and then perhaps Mike or DG would like to supplement. The modes of transmission and the way in which this virus is transmitted  are of significant  interest to all of us. What we are doing is working
    with member states, we’re working with everyone that’s affected by this, looking through the research and trying to understand  when most transmission is happening, when any transmission is happening.

    What we know from reports, what we know from published literature is that the predominant way in which transmission is occurring is amongst symptomatic individuals  and these are people that can be very early on in symptoms, even when they start
    to feel a little bit unwell. This is supported by some data that attempts to catch a virus from individuals who are symptomatic.

    We also know that it’s possible that people can transmit in the few days before they become symptomatic or in their pre-symptomatic  phase. There have been some studies  that have come out and we learned about this when we were on mission
    in China back in January or early February, that there are individuals that can shed virus one to three days before they develop symptoms.

    However it’s very important to note that even if you are pre-symptomatic or even if you don’t have any recognised symptoms you still have to transmit through  droplets,  you still  have to have these infectious particles that come out
    of your nose and your mouth. So while we know that that is possible we do not believe that it’s a major driver of transmission.

    00:27:42

    We’ve also seen modelling estimates that suggest that there’re large numbers of unrecognised transmission and I used unrecognised on purpose because I’m not saying asymptomatic. I’m saying that we may be missing people who are out there who are infected
    but we’re missing them because of current surveillance strategies. That is certainly possible in many parts of the globe.

    Whether or not those individuals are asymptomatic; we will have to wait until we see the results of serologic studies, which we hope we’ll be seeing in the coming days if not weeks.

    So what we can say is that most people are transmitting this virus while they are symptomatic.

    JA        Hi, Jamie. Just in addition because I think – I would never in any way contradict my good friend, Tony Fauci, such an eminent man. There are many different estimations of what might represent asymptomatic
    transmission or other infections in the community and we do know and everyone accepts that when the seroepidemiology studies do come online we will probably find more people who’ve been infected unknowingly; there’s no question of that.

    The thing we need to address in all of this is  very often the idea of  severity versus infection and there is a huge association  between the dose  of exposure  and the severity  of infection. We see this in many other
    infectious diseases so we also probably need to look  at who is getting sick and very sick and is the dose and the type of exposure they’re getting different to those who may be exposed and seroconverted in the community.

    00:29:26

    So it’s not just a matter of looking at how many people in the community are infected but are there specific elements  of exposure  that cause individuals  to have  a higher dose of exposure or a specific route of exposure 
    that causes more severe infection?  There is  also that concept of infectious dose when we talk about the different types of transmission. If somebody is exposed to a high dose from another individual directly or from a surface that’s
    heavily contaminated you can imagine the large dose.

    In other circumstances individual particles or virus particles potentially floating through  the air; it can be demonstrated that that may happen in certain circumstances, certainly in healthcare settings. But is that significant  in 
    terms of driving  infection,  is  that significant, does that produce an infectious dose that can successfully infect another individual?

    These are all very important things that still need to be studied. Again we’re only a number of weeks into this. I think we need to have the seroepi studies. I think  we need more information on what is the infectious  dose  and particularly 
    the relationship  between the dose  of exposure or infection and the severity of disease subsequently, which has been seen with many, many other diseases in the past including cholera, Ebola and others.

    TJ        Thank you very much, Mike and Maria. We will go now to our next question; that’s Kai Kupferschmidt. Kai, can you hear us?

    00:31:01

    KA      Yes, Tarik. Thanks a lot for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the global  push  to try and find a pre-exposure  prophylaxis  or a post-exposure  prophylaxis. I understand there’re
    several trials going on, most of them with chloroquine  or hydroxychloroquine.  I was just wondering whether you can speak a little bit to what role this could potentially play.

    Of course also there’re a lot of smaller studies going on. Is there any way to make sure that they all lead to results that can be proved in the end?

    MR      Maria can give you more detail but certainly one of the Solidarity trials – I think Solidarity 3 or 4 – we have one of the trials under design which will be a multi-centre study which will look at prophylaxis in healthcare workers to see whether there’s evidence that giving lower doses of drugs like chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine to healthcare workers would reduce their risk of becoming infected in a healthcare environment.

    Those studies are certainly underway and again there are a number of those studies underway in smaller studies around the world but again as WHO we’re trying  to bring  together  a larger set of collaborative studies that will give
    us the answers we need.

    In terms of post-exposure prophylaxis I don’t believe  we have at the moment  studies  planned but Maria can speak to that but there is certainly evidence for the use of – not proven  evidence of effectiveness but there are a number
    of studies underway and trials underway that use hyperimmune globulin  in  the treatment  of disease; in  other words  they use that purified plasma of recovered individuals to give an antibody boost to people who are
    suffering the disease.

    00:32:49

    Similar approaches have been used in post-exposure prophylaxis for other diseases but Maria may be aware of studies underway in that area.

    MK      Only to add that, as you mentioned, there are a number of smaller studies that are happening globally and across a large number of countries.  We have teams through  our science division and through GOARN,
    through the Global Outbreak Alert Network, who are pulling together  available  literature  on a number  of topics,  one  of which is  looking  at different types of therapeutics and drugs.

    The idea is until we can have a study that pulls together enough of a sample size to get these answers to these questions we’re trying  to evaluate  every piece of evidence  that is  published so that we can look at the way in
    which these studies were done, we can look at the strengths, we can look at the limitations so that can help guide us closer  towards an effective treatment for COVID-19.

    TJ        Thank you very much. The next question is from BFM Radio. Is is Kate who is with us?

    KT       Yes, hi. Good evening or good morning.  I’m from BFM Radio  Malaysia. My question is, many countries around the world have imposed lock-downs or some sort of restrictions on movement. I was wondering
    what WHO’s guidance would  be; what’s the sweet spot, the kind of data that governments need to consider before lifting or relaxing  some  of these lock- downs? Thank you very much.

    00:34:29

    MR      Thank you. It is a difficulty for governments right  now  because the lock-downs  in many situations are proving effective in dampening the flames of the epidemic  in  those countries but those
    lock-downs are also causing great economic hardship and everybody especially in the developing world needs to get to a more sustainable way of managing this epidemic and controlling COVID-19 without continuing to damage economic and social life.

    The transition strategy out  of lock-down  requires  a calibrated,  step-wise approach.  It would be probably very inadvisable just to lift a complete lock-down, all of the measures because lock-downs are a general term that
    include closure of schools, closure of  churches, stay-at- home orders, closure of workplaces. It’s a mixture of different things and I think each government needs to break out, what does our lock-down actually constitute, what are the elements
    of our lock-down, where is that happening in the country, do we now understand the epidemiology of the disease in each area in which we have an element of lock-down or shut- down.

    Then to chart the path out, you have to build strong public health capacity to take over from the lock-down. In other words the lock-down is pushing the disease down by putting people back in their homes, by separating communities. Once you raise
    the lock-down you have to have an alternative method to suppress the infection. The  way to do that is active  case finding, testing, isolation of cases, tracking of contacts, quarantining of contacts and strong community education and
    participation and ownership around normal physical distancing, hygiene and giving communities the power to control infection by in effect managing their own physical distance, managing their own capacities to support the response.

    00:36:32

    In that situation, if you’ve strong public health capacity, if you’ve got a community that’s mobilised and empowered and if you’ve strengthened your health system then you’re potentially in a position to start unlocking or unwinding the lock-down.
    The specific parameters you need to be looking at are on two sides.

    One is, it would be very inadvisable to lock down [sic] if the number  of cases coming  through the hospital is already at a level where your  occupancy of  beds is  nearly at 100%.  You need to be in a position where
    you now have free beds in your system so that you’re managing and coping with the caseload and that means you have some absorption capacity left.

    You need to look at things like the doubling  rate; how  many days does it  take for the  number of cases to double? You need to look at positivity rates; what proportion of all samples that we test are positive? You’ll see in
    somewhere like Korea two to 6% of the samples  they test are positive. Last week in New York 37% of tested samples were positive so you need to carefully look at what proportion of people you test are positive.

    00:37:45

    You need to look at the number of contacts that are generated per case and it goes on and on and WHO will be issuing guidance to countries that is a much more specific around the parameters they should be looking at. There are no absolutes here, there
    are no answers, there are no numbers that say if this number is this then you do that. That doesn’t exist but what we can do is offer countries very specific  measurements  that they need to look  at to chart the path out of lock-down.

    That step-wise approach of unlocking somewhat and then waiting to see; I think you need to say, we will stop doing this element of the shut-down  and then we will  wait and we will  look at the data and if that works we go to the next
    stage and the next stage. So a careful, calibrated, step-wise exit from lock-down with putting in place public health capacities, putting in place community capacity, building the capacity of the health system to cope should the disease bounce back up; that’s the safe path out of lock-down.

    We want to achieve it as quickly as possible and we want to avoid many countries going  into that circumstance and we still have many countries around the world who are not in a locked- down situation. In fact their epidemiology would suggest
    they can avoid the worst of this and we need to support them to avoid them going into that situation.

    The most damaging lock-downs are in many developing countries  where people  – as the  DG has said many times – can live from hand to mouth, not from pay cheque to pay cheque but from day to day and we have to find adaptive solutions
    around lock-down and around disease control in vulnerable periurban populations living in poverty,  in  poor  rural communities.  We have to find alternative, adapted ways to manage lock-downs or slow-downs or shut-downs in
    those situations.

    00:39:41

    TJ        Thank you very much. This was Kate from BFM Radio in Malaysia. Now we will  go to Nigeria to Natural Star and it’s Innocent. Innocent, can you hear us?

    IN        Thank you. Can you hear me?

    TJ        Not very well but we will try. Please go ahead.

    IN        Okay, thank you for taking my questions. I have two questions to ask. One; how will WHO assess African countries on what they’ve done concerning the lock-down and management of COVID-19?

    Then the second one; there’s news going around that vaccines are to be tested on Africans when they’re developed. How true is that and is there a window that’s in the nearer future when a vaccine will be developed for COVID-19? Thank you.

    Hello?

    TJ        Yes, we are just trying to make sure that we understood the question but we will try. MR     I think this is Nigeria. Is it?

    TJ        Yes.

    00:41:08

    MR      Maria may answer the question around vaccine development. With regard to our general assessment on lock-down – and the Director-General may wish to comment on this because he’s been speaking with many leaders in Africa
    and, I believe, spoke with  the whole of the African Union leadership and countries late last week so therefore is in a much better position than me to speak about that.

    We would characterise so far, Africa’s actually doing well in this response thus far. Countries have essential capacities for testing, many countries are taking strong action and want to really focus on finding cases and doing contact tracing and trying to stop this disease becoming much more extensive given the fact that health systems are not as strong in many countries. 

    They need support in that though, they need support in testing, they need support with protective gear and they need to be given the resources to be able to mount those types of responses so I would characterise that Africa has not suffered the worst
    of this pandemic so far. The worst of it can be avoided with very, very swift action to support those countries in Africa who really do want to take a comprehensive approach to this disease.

    With the many vulnerable  people  including  refugees and migrants  who live  in  those countries it is our responsibility to provide that support but, DG, you may wish to speak about your interactions with the African
    Union countries.

    00:42:46

    MK      I’ll answer the question  around vaccines. What we can say is  that there are a number of vaccines that are in development and vaccines will be tested through clinical trials with all ethical considerations
    in place in whichever  populations  are under  study  with informed consent, with open and transparent communication. This is of the utmost importance, that not only do we have strong, robust  scientific  evidence 
    but  we ensure that all  of the studies  that are done are done with appropriate and the highest level of ethical considerations.

    One thing on the first question around Africa is that there are a number of countries in Africa right now which have very few cases and Mike has alluded to this in his earlier response.

    Some only have imported cases and there is an opportunity here, this  window  of opportunity that the DG has spoken about exists  in  many countries  still.  There is  an opportunity to prevent the worst from happening
    in a number of countries across Africa and across countries that are still seeing their first case; in some island countries.

    We need to support those governments, those countries, all of the people in those areas to prevent the worst from happening, to prevent these individual cases from becoming clusters, these clusters from becoming community transmission. I think that’s
    where we need to put  a lot of emphasis and support so that we can prevent countries  from reaching a point  where they need to put in these very restrictive movement restrictions.

    TAG    Thank you. Thank you for that question, my brother from Nigeria. On the situation, as Mike said, of course when you see the number of cases the African continent has the lowest number of cases so far but that doesn’t mean that
    the situation will not deteriorate. It may.

    00:45:06

    So Africa should do everything to prevent this situation from getting worse and that’s why African leaders are doing their best. I had a chance to participate in a meeting, a Leaders’ Coalition which was arranged or invited by the current Chairperson
    of the African Union, the President of South Africa, President Ramaphoza and many leaders from all corners of the continent have actually participated.

    The main agenda is to have a continental strategy and also make sure that that continental strategy helps the national strategy but in addition to a coalition of political leaders or the heads of state and government they have also agreed to have a coalition of business leaders. Business leaders in Africa are also getting together because Africa will need resources and one of the major problems that was identified during the discussion
    was especially shortage of equipment starting from medical equipment, PPE and test kits and so on.

    The leaders have agreed to look for concrete solutions to address the problem and they also believe that considering the number of cases we have in the continent testing cases, tracing contacts and isolating them, meaning using the comprehensive approach,
    will actually  help. They believe that lock-downs alone may not help or the physical distancing alone cannot help and they have agreed to do everything to follow the comprehensive approach.

    From WHO’s side we have been supporting and we increased, improved  the testing capacity in Africa significantly in the past two months and many countries in Africa have now testing capability although we may have a shortage of test kits but 
    we’re working  on that too and we’re finding different ways of addressing the gap.

    00:48:06

    But we will support the African Union, we will support the Africa CDC and also we will continue working through our WHO regional office in Congo Brazzaville and continue to support and fight the pandemic together.

    Then on the vaccines issue there was, I think, a comment last week from a couple of

    scientists who said the testing ground for the new vaccines will be Africa. To be honest,  I was so appalled and it was a time when I said, when we needed solidarity these kind of racist remarks actually would not help, it goes against the solidarity.

    Africa cannot and will not be a testing ground for any vaccine. We will follow all the rules to test any vaccine or therapeutics all over the world using exactly the same rules. Whether it’s

    in Europe, Africa or wherever we will use the same protocol and if there is a need to be tested elsewhere to treat human beings the same way, equally.

    The hangover from a colonial mentality has to stop — and WHO will  not  allow  this  to happen. It was a disgrace actually  and appalling  to hear during the 21st century from scientists that kind of remark and we condemn
    this in  the strongest  terms possible  but  we assure you  that this will not happen in Africa and will not happen elsewhere, in any country. Proper protocols will be followed and human beings will be treated as human
    beings because we’re all human beings.

    00:50:37

    Then after saying this the vaccine development; we’re addressing two issues and we will be announcing as soon as possible, hopefully during this week, a big initiative to accelerate the research and development and production of vaccines and also
    design mechanisms for equitable distribution of the vaccines.

    While we’re looking for vaccines, unless we break the barriers to equitable distribution of the products, whether it’s vaccines or therapeutics, we will have a problem, so we need to address the problem ahead of time, we need to address the problem
    of access or challenges to access ahead of time.

    That’s why we will put together a mechanism and we will appoint senior people from the North and South that will work out the details on how they can accelerate production but at the same time how they can ensure equitable distribution. Solidarity
    is very important here. When a vaccine or a medicine is ready we have to be able to deliver it all over the world.

    There should not be a divide between the haves and the have-nots.

    If we say solidarity, solidarity should be in its full form and I hope each and every individual, each and every human being will go for that kind of solidarity. I thank you.

    TJ        Thank you, Dr Tedros. We’ll take a couple more questions. We go to Yang from Xinhua news agency. Yang, can you hear us?

    00:52:58

    YA      Can I hear you?

    TJ        Yes, we can hear you. Please go ahead.

    YA      As World Health Day is approaching  what do you  have to say to the  front-line medical workers in China and around the world in  the global  anti-virus  efforts? This  question is
    for Dr Tedros. Thank you.

    TJ        If we understood well, the question is what is the message to health workers in China and around the world. Maybe you can repeat the question one more time, please.

    YA      Okay. As World Health Day is approaching what would you say and what message do you want to deliver to the front-line medical workers in China  and around the world  in  the global anti-virus effort?

    TAG    I think I have said it earlier;  as you  know,  this  is  the year of  the nurse and the midwife, 2020. We were ready to celebrate it in a big way and it was supposed to be the main event in our
    Assembly in mid-May. Unfortunately we’re in this situation but  we will  be launching a report tomorrow which is the first of its kind.  It’s a report on the  state of nursing. We will launch it tomorrow during the World Health
    Day.

    00:55:01

    But while launching that report, although it’s about nursing, we will celebrate all health workers, midwives, pharmacists, doctors, you name it. I think the world is now seeing the importance and the central role that health workers play. People,
    when they’re asked, of course, to choose they would say health first because it’s only when you’re healthy that you can aspire to anything, whether it’s wealth or fame or anything. It doesn’t matter if you’re not healthy.

    If you’re not healthy the first thing you ask for is to get back your health and our health workers are making sure that happens and they’re central and very important for any individual. So not only during COVID but during other times too health
    professionals are very important because they are safeguarding that very important aspect of life — that’s health.

    So we have to celebrate them every day. Of course during COVID we can see to what extent they’re sacrificing. We have lost many of them. They’re dying while  saving lives  so my message first is to the public at large; that each and every individual 
    should  recognise, whether it’s during normal times or pandemics like now, the role of health  professionals  and help them, protect them, really appreciate and respect what they are doing.

    To the health workers, although especially during this COVID pandemic you’re working in a difficult situation you should know that your work is the most blessed one, your work is something  special to the extent of losing  your  life 
    while  helping  others to live.  We respect you and appreciate you for that and we also believe in you and that you will do everything to control this pandemic.

    00:58:11

    But you should know that you have – and the world understands – the most important job. We can see the humility which is coming from some leaders because of this pandemic. I know they’re seeing, starting from their own lives, the whole world through 
    a different  prism  and they will also see your role.

    But the most important is not the recognition from the public or from leaders but the internal commitment and passion you have and believing that you’re doing the most blessed thing  and you have all our respect and appreciation and we believe in 
    you,  that together  we will  finish this pandemic. All the respect and appreciation we have to you, the greatest respect and appreciation ever. Thank you.

    TJ        Thank you very much, Dr Tedros. I think this important message will be heard from everyone and we will  conclude  this  press briefing with these important  words from Dr Tedros. We will
    have an audio file available in the minutes to come and we invite you for our next briefing on Wednesday. Thank you.

    TAG    [Inaudible] and see you on Wednesday – tomorrow actually for the launch. Yes, see you tomorrow.

    01:00:18

    Virtual Press Conference on COVID-19- 06 April 2020
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    https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/06-04-2020-virtual-press-conference-on-covid-19–06-april-2020

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